Utah's 4th congressional district shows a pronounced Republican advantage in the 2026 general election, with Mike Kennedy positioned as the nominee after an uncontested primary following Burgess Owens' retirement decision. Redistricting shifted the district's boundaries to encompass areas with a 32-point Trump margin from the prior cycle, reinforcing its partisan composition and limiting Democratic viability for Jonny Larsen. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Utah's broader electoral patterns and minimal recent polling movement. Trader consensus on the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive primaries or major campaign developments since June. Scenarios that could still influence results include late-cycle national economic shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Salt Lake County precincts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
UT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$40,198 Vol.
$40,198 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
95%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$40,198 Vol.
$40,198 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$15,673 Vol.
95%
Partido Demócrata
$24,525 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district shows a pronounced Republican advantage in the 2026 general election, with Mike Kennedy positioned as the nominee after an uncontested primary following Burgess Owens' retirement decision. Redistricting shifted the district's boundaries to encompass areas with a 32-point Trump margin from the prior cycle, reinforcing its partisan composition and limiting Democratic viability for Jonny Larsen. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Utah's broader electoral patterns and minimal recent polling movement. Trader consensus on the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive primaries or major campaign developments since June. Scenarios that could still influence results include late-cycle national economic shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Salt Lake County precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$40,198Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district shows a pronounced Republican advantage in the 2026 general election, with Mike Kennedy positioned as the nominee after an uncontested primary following Burgess Owens' retirement decision. Redistricting shifted the district's boundaries to encompass areas with a 32-point Trump margin from the prior cycle, reinforcing its partisan composition and limiting Democratic viability for Jonny Larsen. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Utah's broader electoral patterns and minimal recent polling movement. Trader consensus on the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive primaries or major campaign developments since June. Scenarios that could still influence results include late-cycle national economic shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Salt Lake County precincts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$40,198Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district shows a pronounced Republican advantage in the 2026 general election, with Mike Kennedy positioned as the nominee after an uncontested primary following Burgess Owens' retirement decision. Redistricting shifted the district's boundaries to encompass areas with a 32-point Trump margin from the prior cycle, reinforcing its partisan composition and limiting Democratic viability for Jonny Larsen. Cook Political Report and similar forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Utah's broader electoral patterns and minimal recent polling movement. Trader consensus on the Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors and the absence of competitive primaries or major campaign developments since June. Scenarios that could still influence results include late-cycle national economic shifts, candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Democratic turnout in suburban Salt Lake County precincts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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