Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary to face Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun in the November 3 general election for WA-03. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+2 and supported Trump in 2024, yet recent polling shows a tight contest with Perez holding ground through her centrist record and crossover appeal. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 87.5% implied probability, reflecting Perez's incumbency advantages, the district's gradual leftward shift, and Washington state's broader electoral patterns that have favored Democrats in recent cycles. Braun's Trump endorsement and primary performance provide the main Republican path, though structural factors and voter turnout dynamics in this battleground seat continue to shape assessments ahead of Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
WA-03 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$27,127 Vol.
$27,127 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
88%
Partido Republicano
11%
$27,127 Vol.
$27,127 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$17,358 Vol.
88%
Partido Republicano
$9,770 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary to face Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun in the November 3 general election for WA-03. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+2 and supported Trump in 2024, yet recent polling shows a tight contest with Perez holding ground through her centrist record and crossover appeal. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 87.5% implied probability, reflecting Perez's incumbency advantages, the district's gradual leftward shift, and Washington state's broader electoral patterns that have favored Democrats in recent cycles. Braun's Trump endorsement and primary performance provide the main Republican path, though structural factors and voter turnout dynamics in this battleground seat continue to shape assessments ahead of Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
Volumen
$27,127Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary to face Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun in the November 3 general election for WA-03. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+2 and supported Trump in 2024, yet recent polling shows a tight contest with Perez holding ground through her centrist record and crossover appeal. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 87.5% implied probability, reflecting Perez's incumbency advantages, the district's gradual leftward shift, and Washington state's broader electoral patterns that have favored Democrats in recent cycles. Braun's Trump endorsement and primary performance provide the main Republican path, though structural factors and voter turnout dynamics in this battleground seat continue to shape assessments ahead of Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$27,127Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advanced from Washington's August 4 top-two primary to face Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun in the November 3 general election for WA-03. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+2 and supported Trump in 2024, yet recent polling shows a tight contest with Perez holding ground through her centrist record and crossover appeal. Traders assign the Democratic nominee an 87.5% implied probability, reflecting Perez's incumbency advantages, the district's gradual leftward shift, and Washington state's broader electoral patterns that have favored Democrats in recent cycles. Braun's Trump endorsement and primary performance provide the main Republican path, though structural factors and voter turnout dynamics in this battleground seat continue to shape assessments ahead of Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes