Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith faces Republican Doug Basler in Washington’s 9th congressional district, rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters with a D+22 partisan voting index. Smith’s comfortable top-two primary advance in August, substantial fundraising lead, and the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and House contests anchor trader expectations for a sizable victory margin. Limited recent polling and the absence of major national shifts or candidate-specific developments since the primary have kept various margin buckets clustered closely together, reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and any late-cycle national political environment. The November general election timeline leaves room for modest movement if broader conditions change.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoWA-09 Margen de victoria en las elecciones de la Cámara
WA-09 Margen de victoria en las elecciones de la Cámara
Dem01crata 55-60% 40%
Demócrata 20-30% 40%
Demócrata 60%+ 39%
Demócrata 30-35% 39%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 60%+
39%
Dem01crata 55-60%
40%
Demócrata 50-55%
37%
Demócrata 45-50%
38%
Demócrata 40-45%
38%
Demócrata 35-40%
39%
Demócrata 30-35%
39%
Demócrata 20-30%
40%
Demócrata 0-20%
39%
Gana un republicano
37%
Dem01crata 55-60% 40%
Demócrata 20-30% 40%
Demócrata 60%+ 39%
Demócrata 30-35% 39%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Demócrata 60%+
$0 Vol.
39%
Dem01crata 55-60%
$0 Vol.
40%
Demócrata 50-55%
$0 Vol.
37%
Demócrata 45-50%
$0 Vol.
38%
Demócrata 40-45%
$0 Vol.
38%
Demócrata 35-40%
$0 Vol.
39%
Demócrata 30-35%
$0 Vol.
39%
Demócrata 20-30%
$0 Vol.
40%
Demócrata 0-20%
$0 Vol.
39%
Gana un republicano
$10 Vol.
37%
The 2026 WA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith faces Republican Doug Basler in Washington’s 9th congressional district, rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters with a D+22 partisan voting index. Smith’s comfortable top-two primary advance in August, substantial fundraising lead, and the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and House contests anchor trader expectations for a sizable victory margin. Limited recent polling and the absence of major national shifts or candidate-specific developments since the primary have kept various margin buckets clustered closely together, reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and any late-cycle national political environment. The November general election timeline leaves room for modest movement if broader conditions change.
The 2026 WA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:15 PM ET
Volumen
$10Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 WA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith faces Republican Doug Basler in Washington’s 9th congressional district, rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters with a D+22 partisan voting index. Smith’s comfortable top-two primary advance in August, substantial fundraising lead, and the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and House contests anchor trader expectations for a sizable victory margin. Limited recent polling and the absence of major national shifts or candidate-specific developments since the primary have kept various margin buckets clustered closely together, reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and any late-cycle national political environment. The November general election timeline leaves room for modest movement if broader conditions change.
The 2026 WA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 WA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$10Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith faces Republican Doug Basler in Washington’s 9th congressional district, rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters with a D+22 partisan voting index. Smith’s comfortable top-two primary advance in August, substantial fundraising lead, and the district’s consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and House contests anchor trader expectations for a sizable victory margin. Limited recent polling and the absence of major national shifts or candidate-specific developments since the primary have kept various margin buckets clustered closely together, reflecting uncertainty over turnout patterns and any late-cycle national political environment. The November general election timeline leaves room for modest movement if broader conditions change.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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