Ongoing hostilities and entrenched disagreements over territory, security guarantees, and NATO alignment continue to limit prospects for a direct Putin-Zelenskyy summit. Recent US-mediated shuttle diplomacy in October 2026 produced agreement in principle for trilateral technical talks around November 10, potentially in Abu Dhabi, focusing on post-conflict security frameworks rather than leader-level negotiations. Putin has reiterated that any bilateral meeting should occur in Moscow after preparatory work, a venue Ukraine rejects in favor of neutral ground, while both sides maintain maximalist positions. Battlefield activity persists without a ceasefire, and prior rounds of talks yielded limited results beyond prisoner exchanges. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no leader meeting by late 2027, with low probabilities assigned to various international venues reflecting uncertainty over timing and format.