Anthropic holds an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October 2026, driven by its rapid September releases including Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, which leads multiple independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants. Recent updates emphasize gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus on Anthropic’s competitive edge in the short window before resolution. Lower odds for OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Chinese labs reflect their latest models trailing on verified capability metrics, with no confirmed breakthroughs expected to close the gap before October 31. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these near-term dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 86%
Google 7.1%
Meta 5.7%
OpenAI 3.0%
$21,798 Vol.
$21,798 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
86%
7%
Meta
6%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 7.1%
Meta 5.7%
OpenAI 3.0%
$21,798 Vol.
$21,798 Vol.
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$13,184 Vol.
86%
$554 Vol.
7%
Meta
$493 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$871 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$449 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$418 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$458 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$263 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$394 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$420 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$387 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$378 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$382 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$378 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$375 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$379 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$339 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$382 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$514 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$399 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$383 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October 2026, driven by its rapid September releases including Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, which leads multiple independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants. Recent updates emphasize gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus on Anthropic’s competitive edge in the short window before resolution. Lower odds for OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Chinese labs reflect their latest models trailing on verified capability metrics, with no confirmed breakthroughs expected to close the gap before October 31. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these near-term dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volumen
$21,798Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October 2026, driven by its rapid September releases including Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, which leads multiple independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants. Recent updates emphasize gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus on Anthropic’s competitive edge in the short window before resolution. Lower odds for OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Chinese labs reflect their latest models trailing on verified capability metrics, with no confirmed breakthroughs expected to close the gap before October 31. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these near-term dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$21,798Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds an 85.5% implied probability of fielding the top AI model by end of October 2026, driven by its rapid September releases including Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, which leads multiple independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini variants. Recent updates emphasize gains in agentic coding, long-context reasoning, and knowledge work, reinforcing trader consensus on Anthropic’s competitive edge in the short window before resolution. Lower odds for OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Chinese labs reflect their latest models trailing on verified capability metrics, with no confirmed breakthroughs expected to close the gap before October 31. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital bets on these near-term dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes