Anthropic's Claude variants, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, currently lead LiveBench coding and closely related suites such as SWE-bench Verified (96%) and AA Coding Index (78%), establishing a clear edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 entries that trail by several points in recent August 2026 snapshots. This performance gap on contamination-resistant, regularly refreshed coding tasks drives the market's 68.5% implied probability for Anthropic versus 27.5% for OpenAI. Traders appear to discount lower-odds contenders like Mistral or Chinese labs because their latest releases have not matched frontier coding scores. With the end-of-October evaluation still two months away, any new model drops or benchmark refreshes could shift sentiment, though Anthropic's recent consistency on agentic and repository-level tasks underpins the current trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 69%
OpenAI 28%
Mistral 2.0%
Z.ai 1.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
69%
OpenAI
28%
Mistral
2%
Z.ai
2%
DeepSeek
2%
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Meta
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 69%
OpenAI 28%
Mistral 2.0%
Z.ai 1.6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$4,192 Vol.
69%
OpenAI
$600 Vol.
28%
Mistral
$165 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$210 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$113 Vol.
2%
$138 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$174 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$212 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$212 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$197 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$177 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$166 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$188 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$146 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$161 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$215 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$168 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$207 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$171 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$166 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$186 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude variants, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, currently lead LiveBench coding and closely related suites such as SWE-bench Verified (96%) and AA Coding Index (78%), establishing a clear edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 entries that trail by several points in recent August 2026 snapshots. This performance gap on contamination-resistant, regularly refreshed coding tasks drives the market's 68.5% implied probability for Anthropic versus 27.5% for OpenAI. Traders appear to discount lower-odds contenders like Mistral or Chinese labs because their latest releases have not matched frontier coding scores. With the end-of-October evaluation still two months away, any new model drops or benchmark refreshes could shift sentiment, though Anthropic's recent consistency on agentic and repository-level tasks underpins the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$8,157Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude variants, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, currently lead LiveBench coding and closely related suites such as SWE-bench Verified (96%) and AA Coding Index (78%), establishing a clear edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 entries that trail by several points in recent August 2026 snapshots. This performance gap on contamination-resistant, regularly refreshed coding tasks drives the market's 68.5% implied probability for Anthropic versus 27.5% for OpenAI. Traders appear to discount lower-odds contenders like Mistral or Chinese labs because their latest releases have not matched frontier coding scores. With the end-of-October evaluation still two months away, any new model drops or benchmark refreshes could shift sentiment, though Anthropic's recent consistency on agentic and repository-level tasks underpins the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$8,157Fecha de finalización
1 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude variants, including Opus 5 and Fable 5, currently lead LiveBench coding and closely related suites such as SWE-bench Verified (96%) and AA Coding Index (78%), establishing a clear edge over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 entries that trail by several points in recent August 2026 snapshots. This performance gap on contamination-resistant, regularly refreshed coding tasks drives the market's 68.5% implied probability for Anthropic versus 27.5% for OpenAI. Traders appear to discount lower-odds contenders like Mistral or Chinese labs because their latest releases have not matched frontier coding scores. With the end-of-October evaluation still two months away, any new model drops or benchmark refreshes could shift sentiment, though Anthropic's recent consistency on agentic and repository-level tasks underpins the current trader consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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