Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the latest LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, driving the 60.5% implied probability for Anthropic as traders weigh its recent releases and consistent leads on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 32.5% despite GPT-5 series efficiency gains and strong benchmark showings elsewhere, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit near 0.5% amid limited LiveBench visibility. With the October resolution still months away, fresh model drops or LiveBench task refreshes could narrow gaps, but Anthropic's current edge and release cadence underpin the market consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
61%
OpenAI
32%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 oct 2026
Anthropic
$4,647 Vol.
61%
OpenAI
$1,085 Vol.
32%
DeepSeek
$177 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$235 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$217 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$240 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$224 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$245 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$177 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$187 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$187 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$175 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$256 Vol.
1%
Meta
$224 Vol.
1%
$153 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$236 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$235 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$185 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$207 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$230 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$128 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the latest LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, driving the 60.5% implied probability for Anthropic as traders weigh its recent releases and consistent leads on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 32.5% despite GPT-5 series efficiency gains and strong benchmark showings elsewhere, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit near 0.5% amid limited LiveBench visibility. With the October resolution still months away, fresh model drops or LiveBench task refreshes could narrow gaps, but Anthropic's current edge and release cadence underpin the market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volumen
$9,649Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the latest LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, driving the 60.5% implied probability for Anthropic as traders weigh its recent releases and consistent leads on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 32.5% despite GPT-5 series efficiency gains and strong benchmark showings elsewhere, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit near 0.5% amid limited LiveBench visibility. With the October resolution still months away, fresh model drops or LiveBench task refreshes could narrow gaps, but Anthropic's current edge and release cadence underpin the market consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volumen
$9,649Fecha de finalización
31 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 currently tops the latest LiveBench overall leaderboard at 83.0, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0, driving the 60.5% implied probability for Anthropic as traders weigh its recent releases and consistent leads on reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. OpenAI trails at 32.5% despite GPT-5 series efficiency gains and strong benchmark showings elsewhere, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit near 0.5% amid limited LiveBench visibility. With the October resolution still months away, fresh model drops or LiveBench task refreshes could narrow gaps, but Anthropic's current edge and release cadence underpin the market consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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