Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd Congressional District toward a more Democratic-leaning profile, trimming the prior Trump margin to roughly two points and prompting several forecasters to rate the seat as a toss-up or lean Democratic. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 40.7 percent against Democratic nominee Randy Villegas at 32.4 percent, while a July poll showed Villegas leading 48-44. Traders appear to weigh the district's altered partisan composition, Valadao's Medicaid-related votes in a high-enrollment area, and the challenger's momentum as key drivers of the current 86-15 implied probability split favoring Democrats. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-22 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-22 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$12,192 Vol.
$12,192 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
86%
Partido Republicano
15%
$12,192 Vol.
$12,192 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$6,239 Vol.
86%
Partido Republicano
$5,954 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd Congressional District toward a more Democratic-leaning profile, trimming the prior Trump margin to roughly two points and prompting several forecasters to rate the seat as a toss-up or lean Democratic. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 40.7 percent against Democratic nominee Randy Villegas at 32.4 percent, while a July poll showed Villegas leading 48-44. Traders appear to weigh the district's altered partisan composition, Valadao's Medicaid-related votes in a high-enrollment area, and the challenger's momentum as key drivers of the current 86-15 implied probability split favoring Democrats. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ET
Volumen
$12,192Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd Congressional District toward a more Democratic-leaning profile, trimming the prior Trump margin to roughly two points and prompting several forecasters to rate the seat as a toss-up or lean Democratic. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 40.7 percent against Democratic nominee Randy Villegas at 32.4 percent, while a July poll showed Villegas leading 48-44. Traders appear to weigh the district's altered partisan composition, Valadao's Medicaid-related votes in a high-enrollment area, and the challenger's momentum as key drivers of the current 86-15 implied probability split favoring Democrats. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$12,192Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 25, 2025, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 22nd Congressional District toward a more Democratic-leaning profile, trimming the prior Trump margin to roughly two points and prompting several forecasters to rate the seat as a toss-up or lean Democratic. Incumbent Republican David Valadao advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 40.7 percent against Democratic nominee Randy Villegas at 32.4 percent, while a July poll showed Villegas leading 48-44. Traders appear to weigh the district's altered partisan composition, Valadao's Medicaid-related votes in a high-enrollment area, and the challenger's momentum as key drivers of the current 86-15 implied probability split favoring Democrats. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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