Petr Yan holds the strongest position in trader consensus at 59.5% implied probability for Merab Dvalishvili’s next bout, driven by repeated statements from both fighters and UFC officials confirming a trilogy rematch after Yan reclaimed the bantamweight title via decision at UFC 323 in December 2025. Recent April 2026 comments from Dvalishvili indicate the fight is targeted for summer or August once he fully recovers, aligning with Yan’s own timeline of spring or summer. Cory Sandhagen sits second at 32.2% as the top alternate, given his strong recent form and division standing, while lower-priced options such as Aiemann Zahabi, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Umar Nurmagomedov reflect broader contender interest if scheduling shifts occur. These probabilities mirror the wisdom of crowds assessing Dvalishvili’s history of frequent title defenses and the bantamweight division’s competitive depth.