Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphones underpins the strong 92.5% implied probability of an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has followed a predictable September product cycle for nearly two decades, incorporating iterative advances in processors, displays, and camera systems without skipping years. Current supply-chain indicators and semiconductor roadmaps from key partners align with continued development of next-generation components expected in the 2026 model. While a major redesign such as a foldable form factor or significant component shortages could introduce delays, these scenarios have proven rare in Apple's core iPhone history. Traders appear to be weighting the consistency of this timeline heavily over less probable disruptions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$102,648 Vol.
$102,648 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$102,648 Vol.
$102,648 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphones underpins the strong 92.5% implied probability of an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has followed a predictable September product cycle for nearly two decades, incorporating iterative advances in processors, displays, and camera systems without skipping years. Current supply-chain indicators and semiconductor roadmaps from key partners align with continued development of next-generation components expected in the 2026 model. While a major redesign such as a foldable form factor or significant component shortages could introduce delays, these scenarios have proven rare in Apple's core iPhone history. Traders appear to be weighting the consistency of this timeline heavily over less probable disruptions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$102,648Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphones underpins the strong 92.5% implied probability of an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has followed a predictable September product cycle for nearly two decades, incorporating iterative advances in processors, displays, and camera systems without skipping years. Current supply-chain indicators and semiconductor roadmaps from key partners align with continued development of next-generation components expected in the 2026 model. While a major redesign such as a foldable form factor or significant component shortages could introduce delays, these scenarios have proven rare in Apple's core iPhone history. Traders appear to be weighting the consistency of this timeline heavily over less probable disruptions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$102,648Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship smartphones underpins the strong 92.5% implied probability of an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has followed a predictable September product cycle for nearly two decades, incorporating iterative advances in processors, displays, and camera systems without skipping years. Current supply-chain indicators and semiconductor roadmaps from key partners align with continued development of next-generation components expected in the 2026 model. While a major redesign such as a foldable form factor or significant component shortages could introduce delays, these scenarios have proven rare in Apple's core iPhone history. Traders appear to be weighting the consistency of this timeline heavily over less probable disruptions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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