Ongoing hostilities in Ukraine and sustained G7 sanctions on Russian energy and finance continue to block any consensus on readmission, as confirmed by the group’s June 2026 joint statements reaffirming support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while pledging additional measures against Moscow’s war economy. Most member governments have rejected earlier U.S. suggestions of an invitation, viewing Russia’s 2014 suspension and subsequent actions as incompatible with G7 norms. With the 2026 summit cycle complete and no diplomatic breakthrough reported, traders assign the 98.4 percent probability to “No” by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. A rapid, verifiable ceasefire meeting core G7 conditions on territorial integrity and security guarantees remains the principal pathway that could still alter the outcome before year-end.