Tesla’s limited Cybercab production ramp and exclusive focus on its own robotaxi fleet in Austin drive the 86.5% market-implied odds against a qualifying retail sale at $30,000 or less by year-end. Only dozens of units have been registered for commercial operation as of mid-September 2026, with paid rides just launching under supervised or early unsupervised conditions while Full Self-Driving v15 remains incomplete. NHTSA’s ongoing audit and special order, requiring sworn compliance details on the steering-wheel-free design by September 30, add regulatory friction that has historically slowed autonomous vehicle approvals. Although the unboxed manufacturing process targets sub-$30,000 economics and Musk has reaffirmed pre-2027 delivery goals, no public retail pricing, inventory, or customer transactions have materialized, leaving fleet scaling and software certification as the decisive near-term swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
14% probabilidad
$56,432 Vol.
$56,432 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
14% probabilidad
$56,432 Vol.
$56,432 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s limited Cybercab production ramp and exclusive focus on its own robotaxi fleet in Austin drive the 86.5% market-implied odds against a qualifying retail sale at $30,000 or less by year-end. Only dozens of units have been registered for commercial operation as of mid-September 2026, with paid rides just launching under supervised or early unsupervised conditions while Full Self-Driving v15 remains incomplete. NHTSA’s ongoing audit and special order, requiring sworn compliance details on the steering-wheel-free design by September 30, add regulatory friction that has historically slowed autonomous vehicle approvals. Although the unboxed manufacturing process targets sub-$30,000 economics and Musk has reaffirmed pre-2027 delivery goals, no public retail pricing, inventory, or customer transactions have materialized, leaving fleet scaling and software certification as the decisive near-term swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volumen
$56,432Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s limited Cybercab production ramp and exclusive focus on its own robotaxi fleet in Austin drive the 86.5% market-implied odds against a qualifying retail sale at $30,000 or less by year-end. Only dozens of units have been registered for commercial operation as of mid-September 2026, with paid rides just launching under supervised or early unsupervised conditions while Full Self-Driving v15 remains incomplete. NHTSA’s ongoing audit and special order, requiring sworn compliance details on the steering-wheel-free design by September 30, add regulatory friction that has historically slowed autonomous vehicle approvals. Although the unboxed manufacturing process targets sub-$30,000 economics and Musk has reaffirmed pre-2027 delivery goals, no public retail pricing, inventory, or customer transactions have materialized, leaving fleet scaling and software certification as the decisive near-term swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$56,432Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s limited Cybercab production ramp and exclusive focus on its own robotaxi fleet in Austin drive the 86.5% market-implied odds against a qualifying retail sale at $30,000 or less by year-end. Only dozens of units have been registered for commercial operation as of mid-September 2026, with paid rides just launching under supervised or early unsupervised conditions while Full Self-Driving v15 remains incomplete. NHTSA’s ongoing audit and special order, requiring sworn compliance details on the steering-wheel-free design by September 30, add regulatory friction that has historically slowed autonomous vehicle approvals. Although the unboxed manufacturing process targets sub-$30,000 economics and Musk has reaffirmed pre-2027 delivery goals, no public retail pricing, inventory, or customer transactions have materialized, leaving fleet scaling and software certification as the decisive near-term swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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