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Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?

icon for Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?

Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?

13% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
13% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. Early frontrunners for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination include JD Vance and Marco Rubio, both men who rank at the top of recent polling and media analyses of potential candidates. Other frequently mentioned figures such as governors and senators are also predominantly male, with limited momentum behind women including Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Katie Britt, Elise Stefanik, or Marjorie Taylor Greene. The nomination process remains in its early stages more than two years before primaries, and current trader consensus reflected in the 78.5% probability for “No” aligns with the absence of any woman establishing a leading position or broad party support in this cycle. Key upcoming developments include further polling shifts and potential candidate announcements that could alter the field.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$1,946
Fecha de finalización
7 nov 2028
Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market. Early frontrunners for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination include JD Vance and Marco Rubio, both men who rank at the top of recent polling and media analyses of potential candidates. Other frequently mentioned figures such as governors and senators are also predominantly male, with limited momentum behind women including Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Katie Britt, Elise Stefanik, or Marjorie Taylor Greene. The nomination process remains in its early stages more than two years before primaries, and current trader consensus reflected in the 78.5% probability for “No” aligns with the absence of any woman establishing a leading position or broad party support in this cycle. Key upcoming developments include further polling shifts and potential candidate announcements that could alter the field.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volumen
$1,946
Fecha de finalización
7 nov 2028
Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 17% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 17¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 17% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Feb 17, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?" es 17% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 17% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will the 2028 Republican Presidential nominee be a woman?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.