Ongoing US-Iran military operations, including airstrikes and naval actions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, have continued since February 2026 without a formal congressional declaration of war. Only Congress holds constitutional authority for such a declaration, and recent developments center on stalled diplomacy, a June memorandum of understanding that collapsed amid renewed Iranian shipping attacks and US strikes in July. As of mid-August, talks involving Oman and other Gulf states focus on reopening maritime routes, with US forces pausing major operations amid these efforts. Trader assessments reflect the low historical likelihood of formal declarations during limited or proxy engagements, alongside risks of escalation or de-escalation that could alter the trajectory before any resolution deadline.