President Trump's January 2026 White House meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado highlighted personal praise for her Nobel Peace Prize efforts yet featured explicit statements that she lacks sufficient domestic support and respect to lead the country after the U.S. operation removing Nicolás Maduro. White House reports through February and May have noted ongoing frustrations with her public comments on elections and her exclusion from post-transition planning amid broader diplomatic stabilization efforts. These developments have shaped trader consensus around the 84.5% implied probability for no formal endorsement by year-end, reflecting the administration's focus on provisional governance structures and alternative Venezuelan figures rather than direct backing for any single opposition candidate.