**David Crowley's narrow victory over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, followed by her swift concession, has produced near-certain trader consensus against a state-ordered recount by August 31.** The margin settled around 3,200–4,000 votes (roughly 0.5 percentage points), wide enough that any recount under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 would have required the requesting candidate to cover costs rather than triggering automatically. Hong's concession immediately after results were certified removed the practical impetus for a petition, and Wisconsin election officials have reported no irregularities or machine issues that would prompt the Elections Commission to act on its own. With canvassing largely complete and only two weeks remaining before the deadline, the absence of any formal challenge or audit trigger has kept the implied probability of "No" above 98%. Realistic paths to a different outcome remain narrow but include a late reversal by Hong or another candidate filing an unexpected petition citing specific precinct-level discrepancies, or the commission identifying verifiable tabulation errors during final certification that meet statutory thresholds for an ordered recount. No such developments have surfaced in the days since the primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
1% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
Sí
1% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**David Crowley's narrow victory over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, followed by her swift concession, has produced near-certain trader consensus against a state-ordered recount by August 31.**
The margin settled around 3,200–4,000 votes (roughly 0.5 percentage points), wide enough that any recount under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 would have required the requesting candidate to cover costs rather than triggering automatically. Hong's concession immediately after results were certified removed the practical impetus for a petition, and Wisconsin election officials have reported no irregularities or machine issues that would prompt the Elections Commission to act on its own. With canvassing largely complete and only two weeks remaining before the deadline, the absence of any formal challenge or audit trigger has kept the implied probability of "No" above 98%.
Realistic paths to a different outcome remain narrow but include a late reversal by Hong or another candidate filing an unexpected petition citing specific precinct-level discrepancies, or the commission identifying verifiable tabulation errors during final certification that meet statutory thresholds for an ordered recount. No such developments have surfaced in the days since the primary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Volumen
$2,290Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**David Crowley's narrow victory over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, followed by her swift concession, has produced near-certain trader consensus against a state-ordered recount by August 31.**
The margin settled around 3,200–4,000 votes (roughly 0.5 percentage points), wide enough that any recount under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 would have required the requesting candidate to cover costs rather than triggering automatically. Hong's concession immediately after results were certified removed the practical impetus for a petition, and Wisconsin election officials have reported no irregularities or machine issues that would prompt the Elections Commission to act on its own. With canvassing largely complete and only two weeks remaining before the deadline, the absence of any formal challenge or audit trigger has kept the implied probability of "No" above 98%.
Realistic paths to a different outcome remain narrow but include a late reversal by Hong or another candidate filing an unexpected petition citing specific precinct-level discrepancies, or the commission identifying verifiable tabulation errors during final certification that meet statutory thresholds for an ordered recount. No such developments have surfaced in the days since the primary.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 directing an official recount of the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The relevant election authorities must announce definitively that the recount process will begin or is already underway. A mere recount request, eligibility for a recount, filing of a recount petition, or proceedings to consider a recount will not qualify. The initiation of a recount without an announcement by election authorities will also qualify. For purposes of this market, a recount will be considered initiated once the Wisconsin Elections Commission issues an order directing a recount, regardless of which person or entity requested it.
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is undertaken by election authorities. A qualifying recount must be conducted pursuant to Wis. Stat. § 9.01 for the 2026 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Minor administrative re-tallies, routine audits, and routine canvass corrections will not qualify as a recount for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,290Fecha de finalización
31 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 12, 2026, 10:18 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**David Crowley's narrow victory over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's August 11 Democratic gubernatorial primary, followed by her swift concession, has produced near-certain trader consensus against a state-ordered recount by August 31.** The margin settled around 3,200–4,000 votes (roughly 0.5 percentage points), wide enough that any recount under Wis. Stat. § 9.01 would have required the requesting candidate to cover costs rather than triggering automatically. Hong's concession immediately after results were certified removed the practical impetus for a petition, and Wisconsin election officials have reported no irregularities or machine issues that would prompt the Elections Commission to act on its own. With canvassing largely complete and only two weeks remaining before the deadline, the absence of any formal challenge or audit trigger has kept the implied probability of "No" above 98%. Realistic paths to a different outcome remain narrow but include a late reversal by Hong or another candidate filing an unexpected petition citing specific precinct-level discrepancies, or the commission identifying verifiable tabulation errors during final certification that meet statutory thresholds for an ordered recount. No such developments have surfaced in the days since the primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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