Spain edges the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, just ahead of France, because of La Roja’s Euro 2024 title, continued Nations League success, and a balanced squad featuring Lamine Yamal alongside established midfield control. France sits close behind on similar depth and Kylian Mbappé’s proven knockout pedigree, while England and Portugal cluster near 11% on consistent qualifying form and star attacking options. Argentina and Brazil follow on defending-champion pedigree and traditional talent pools. The tight spread among the top six reflects comparable squad quality, limited recent head-to-head separation, and the expanded 48-team format that still favors elite European depth over any single standout side, with fitness updates around key attackers the main near-term variable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoEspaña 17.0%
Francia 16.1%
Inglaterra 10.8%
Portugal 10.8%
$1,967,159,108 Vol.
$1,967,159,108 Vol.
España
17%
Francia
16%
Inglaterra
11%
Portugal
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Alemania
5%
Países Bajos
4%
Noruega
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Japón
2%
Marruecos
2%
México
1%
Suiza
1%
USA
1%
Turquía
1%
Uruguay
1%
Ecuador
1%
Croacia
1%
Senegal
1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Austria
<1%
Canadá
<1%
Suecia
<1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Escocia
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Irán
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Chequia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
España 17.0%
Francia 16.1%
Inglaterra 10.8%
Portugal 10.8%
$1,967,159,108 Vol.
$1,967,159,108 Vol.
España
17%
Francia
16%
Inglaterra
11%
Portugal
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasil
9%
Alemania
5%
Países Bajos
4%
Noruega
2%
Bélgica
2%
Colombia
2%
Japón
2%
Marruecos
2%
México
1%
Suiza
1%
USA
1%
Turquía
1%
Uruguay
1%
Ecuador
1%
Croacia
1%
Senegal
1%
Costa de Marfil
<1%
Austria
<1%
Canadá
<1%
Suecia
<1%
Corea del Sur
<1%
Escocia
<1%
Egipto
<1%
Irán
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Argelia
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
RD del Congo
<1%
Chequia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nueva Zelanda
<1%
Haití
<1%
Jordania
<1%
Título del ítem de grupo: Curaçao
<1%
Túnez
<1%
Uzbekistán
<1%
Panamá
<1%
Irak
<1%
Sudáfrica
<1%
Cabo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain edges the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, just ahead of France, because of La Roja’s Euro 2024 title, continued Nations League success, and a balanced squad featuring Lamine Yamal alongside established midfield control. France sits close behind on similar depth and Kylian Mbappé’s proven knockout pedigree, while England and Portugal cluster near 11% on consistent qualifying form and star attacking options. Argentina and Brazil follow on defending-champion pedigree and traditional talent pools. The tight spread among the top six reflects comparable squad quality, limited recent head-to-head separation, and the expanded 48-team format that still favors elite European depth over any single standout side, with fitness updates around key attackers the main near-term variable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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