Former President Yoon Suk-yeol faces multiple criminal convictions, including a February 2026 life sentence for insurrection tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration. South Korean courts have issued repeated detention warrants, including a six-month extension in early 2026, keeping him in custody through mid-year. Appeals processes in the South Korean judicial system typically extend over many months for high-profile cases involving national security charges, with no confirmed release orders or bail grants reported. These factors underpin the market's 92.6% implied probability on "No," reflecting trader consensus that Yoon will remain detained through December 2026 absent an extraordinary reversal on appeal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Yoon fuera de custodia antes de 2027?
Sí
$182,284 Vol.
$182,284 Vol.
Sí
$182,284 Vol.
$182,284 Vol.
If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Former President Yoon Suk-yeol faces multiple criminal convictions, including a February 2026 life sentence for insurrection tied to his December 2024 martial law declaration. South Korean courts have issued repeated detention warrants, including a six-month extension in early 2026, keeping him in custody through mid-year. Appeals processes in the South Korean judicial system typically extend over many months for high-profile cases involving national security charges, with no confirmed release orders or bail grants reported. These factors underpin the market's 92.6% implied probability on "No," reflecting trader consensus that Yoon will remain detained through December 2026 absent an extraordinary reversal on appeal.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado



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