**Ongoing martial law, extended through at least October 2026 and likely longer while the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, bars presidential elections under Ukrainian law, keeping incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy in office beyond his original 2024 term.** Parliament has approved repeated 90-day extensions, and a large majority of Ukrainians (71% in a September 2026 KIIS poll) oppose wartime voting due to security and participation concerns. Zelenskyy has signaled openness to elections only with international security guarantees or after a ceasefire, while stating readiness to forgo a second term if the war ends. Recent polling shows declining support for him running again (42% yes, 53% no), yet no viable mechanism exists for removal or an early vote by mid-2027. These institutional and wartime constraints underpin the market's strong "No" consensus.