Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50%—its final easing move after the 2024 cycle—explicitly signaled a pause, citing Q1 economic contraction, greater slack, and reduced demand pressures. Recent May inflation data reinforced this stance, with headline CPI easing to 3.94% year-over-year (within the 2-4% target band) and core at 4.19%, though both remain above the 3% midpoint amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Weak 2026 GDP forecasts below 1% from several institutions further support maintaining the current restrictive level ahead of the June 25 and August 6 meetings. These factors underpin the 60% market-implied probability of no change in August, while split probabilities for modest adjustments reflect lingering inflation risks and potential data surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNo change 85%
25 bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$21,389 Vol.
$21,389 Vol.
6 ago 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
12%
No change
85%
25 bps increase
1%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 85%
25 bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 1.4%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$21,389 Vol.
$21,389 Vol.
6 ago 2026
50+ bps decrease
$434 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$1,051 Vol.
12%
No change
$19,044 Vol.
85%
25 bps increase
$484 Vol.
1%
50+ bps increase
$376 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50%—its final easing move after the 2024 cycle—explicitly signaled a pause, citing Q1 economic contraction, greater slack, and reduced demand pressures. Recent May inflation data reinforced this stance, with headline CPI easing to 3.94% year-over-year (within the 2-4% target band) and core at 4.19%, though both remain above the 3% midpoint amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Weak 2026 GDP forecasts below 1% from several institutions further support maintaining the current restrictive level ahead of the June 25 and August 6 meetings. These factors underpin the 60% market-implied probability of no change in August, while split probabilities for modest adjustments reflect lingering inflation risks and potential data surprises.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: May 12, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
Volumen
$21,389Fecha de finalización
6 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50%—its final easing move after the 2024 cycle—explicitly signaled a pause, citing Q1 economic contraction, greater slack, and reduced demand pressures. Recent May inflation data reinforced this stance, with headline CPI easing to 3.94% year-over-year (within the 2-4% target band) and core at 4.19%, though both remain above the 3% midpoint amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Weak 2026 GDP forecasts below 1% from several institutions further support maintaining the current restrictive level ahead of the June 25 and August 6 meetings. These factors underpin the 60% market-implied probability of no change in August, while split probabilities for modest adjustments reflect lingering inflation risks and potential data surprises.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,389Fecha de finalización
6 ago 2026Mercado abierto
May 12, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.50%—its final easing move after the 2024 cycle—explicitly signaled a pause, citing Q1 economic contraction, greater slack, and reduced demand pressures. Recent May inflation data reinforced this stance, with headline CPI easing to 3.94% year-over-year (within the 2-4% target band) and core at 4.19%, though both remain above the 3% midpoint amid geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Weak 2026 GDP forecasts below 1% from several institutions further support maintaining the current restrictive level ahead of the June 25 and August 6 meetings. These factors underpin the 60% market-implied probability of no change in August, while split probabilities for modest adjustments reflect lingering inflation risks and potential data surprises.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes