**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 1?
33°C 34%
32°C 29%
31°C 22%
30°C 11%
ใหม่
$10,031 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$10,031 ปริมาณ
Jul 1, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
11%
31°C
22%
32°C
29%
33°C
34%
34°C
8%
35°C
1%
36°C or higher
1%
33°C 34%
32°C 29%
31°C 22%
30°C 11%
ใหม่
$10,031 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$10,031 ปริมาณ
Jul 1, 2026
26°C or below
$315 ปริมาณ
<1%
27°C
$217 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$232 ปริมาณ
1%
29°C
$408 ปริมาณ
2%
30°C
$428 ปริมาณ
11%
31°C
$629 ปริมาณ
22%
32°C
$5,532 ปริมาณ
29%
33°C
$994 ปริมาณ
34%
34°C
$877 ปริมาณ
8%
35°C
$242 ปริมาณ
1%
36°C or higher
$195 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,031วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$10,031วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus clusters around 31–33°C for Hong Kong’s official daily maximum on July 1, reflecting uncertainty in the precise balance between seasonal warmth and short-term synoptic influences.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s seasonal outlook for June–August 2026 calls for above-normal temperatures amid the long-term warming trend, consistent with typical early-July climatology of ~31°C daytime highs under prevailing southwesterly flow. Differentiating the narrow 31–33°C band hinges on expected cloud cover, shower activity, and boundary-layer mixing: persistent monsoon trough moisture or convective clouds would cap peaks near 31°C, while clearer intervals under a stronger subtropical ridge could allow 33°C. Model consensus and recent multi-model runs show modest spread in these details, with no major typhoon signals yet altering the pattern. Updated HKO guidance and morning observations on June 30–July 1 will likely narrow the outcome before market resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย