The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16–17°C for London’s maximum temperature on June 11 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in that narrow band under a mix of broken cloud and light westerly flow. Recent model runs have narrowed the spread after an early-June cool spell gave way to more typical early-summer conditions, with limited daytime heating from modest insolation and no strong warm advection. Uncertainty between 16°C and 17°C hinges on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing versus lingering low cloud, while an 18°C outcome would require stronger high pressure and clearer skies than currently indicated. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten these probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Londres el 11 de junio?
¿La temperatura más alta en Londres el 11 de junio?
17°C 39%
16°C 31%
18°C 15%
15°C 7%
NUEVO
$15,990 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,990 Vol.
11 jun 2026
9°C o menos
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
7%
16°C
31%
17°C
39%
18°C
15%
19°C o más
6%
17°C 39%
16°C 31%
18°C 15%
15°C 7%
NUEVO
$15,990 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,990 Vol.
11 jun 2026
9°C o menos
$521 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$1,005 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$830 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$774 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1,357 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,372 Vol.
1%
15°C
$1,781 Vol.
7%
16°C
$1,717 Vol.
31%
17°C
$1,470 Vol.
39%
18°C
$1,932 Vol.
15%
19°C o más
$2,351 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16–17°C for London’s maximum temperature on June 11 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in that narrow band under a mix of broken cloud and light westerly flow. Recent model runs have narrowed the spread after an early-June cool spell gave way to more typical early-summer conditions, with limited daytime heating from modest insolation and no strong warm advection. Uncertainty between 16°C and 17°C hinges on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing versus lingering low cloud, while an 18°C outcome would require stronger high pressure and clearer skies than currently indicated. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$15,990Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16–17°C for London’s maximum temperature on June 11 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in that narrow band under a mix of broken cloud and light westerly flow. Recent model runs have narrowed the spread after an early-June cool spell gave way to more typical early-summer conditions, with limited daytime heating from modest insolation and no strong warm advection. Uncertainty between 16°C and 17°C hinges on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing versus lingering low cloud, while an 18°C outcome would require stronger high pressure and clearer skies than currently indicated. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten these probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$15,990Fecha de finalización
11 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 16–17°C for London’s maximum temperature on June 11 stems from the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts showing daytime highs in that narrow band under a mix of broken cloud and light westerly flow. Recent model runs have narrowed the spread after an early-June cool spell gave way to more typical early-summer conditions, with limited daytime heating from modest insolation and no strong warm advection. Uncertainty between 16°C and 17°C hinges on the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing versus lingering low cloud, while an 18°C outcome would require stronger high pressure and clearer skies than currently indicated. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will likely tighten these probabilities further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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