Incumbent Mark Sutcliffe holds a commanding position in the Ottawa mayoral race ahead of the October 26 vote, reflecting his established record on transit improvements, public safety hiring, and efforts to secure higher-level government funding. Recent platform releases emphasize capped property tax increases of 2–2.5% for the first two years, a reduced monthly transit pass, additional affordable housing targets, and infrastructure hardening after major storms, which have reinforced trader views of his frontrunner status. Challengers Jeff Leiper, Alex Lawson, and Neil Saravanamuttoo remain active with competing tax and spending proposals, yet their support has stayed fragmented in available polling, limiting any single alternative from consolidating opposition votes. Minor candidates, including Catherine McKenney, show negligible momentum. The market pricing aligns with Sutcliffe’s incumbency edge and the absence of major unifying shifts among rivals in the final weeks.