France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by today's 26-man squad announcement retaining captain Kylian Mbappé and adding Michael Olise despite dropping Eduardo Camavinga for injury-plagued form and ruling out Hugo Ekitiké with a torn Achilles. Spain trails closely at 16.6% on tactical cohesion and an easy group draw against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, though Lamine Yamal's hamstring recovery looms large. Widespread injuries—Brazil losing Rodrygo, Éder Militão, and Estêvão; Argentina's Cristian Romero knee doubt; Germany's Serge Gnabry adductor tear—level the field among Europe's deep squads and South America's defending champions, fostering a bunched race in the expanded 48-team format with volatile group stage advancement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFrance 17.6%
Espagne 16.6%
Angleterre 11.5%
Brésil 9.2%
$981,318,232 Vol.
$981,318,232 Vol.
France
18%
Espagne
17%
Angleterre
11%
Brésil
9%
Argentine
9%
Portugal
8%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
2%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Suisse
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Turquie
1%
Autriche
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
<1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
France 17.6%
Espagne 16.6%
Angleterre 11.5%
Brésil 9.2%
$981,318,232 Vol.
$981,318,232 Vol.
France
18%
Espagne
17%
Angleterre
11%
Brésil
9%
Argentine
9%
Portugal
8%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
2%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
États-Unis
2%
Maroc
2%
Suisse
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexique
1%
Croatie
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Turquie
1%
Autriche
1%
Suède
1%
Canada
<1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Australie
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Irak
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 17.6% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by today's 26-man squad announcement retaining captain Kylian Mbappé and adding Michael Olise despite dropping Eduardo Camavinga for injury-plagued form and ruling out Hugo Ekitiké with a torn Achilles. Spain trails closely at 16.6% on tactical cohesion and an easy group draw against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, though Lamine Yamal's hamstring recovery looms large. Widespread injuries—Brazil losing Rodrygo, Éder Militão, and Estêvão; Argentina's Cristian Romero knee doubt; Germany's Serge Gnabry adductor tear—level the field among Europe's deep squads and South America's defending champions, fostering a bunched race in the expanded 48-team format with volatile group stage advancement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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