Traders see a tightly contested race for third-place AI lab status by end of October, with Google, Meta, and several Chinese labs like Alibaba clustered near the front amid shifting benchmarks. Recent Gemini 3.1 releases have bolstered Google’s position through gains in efficiency, dynamic reasoning controls, and multimodal capabilities, while open-weight models from DeepSeek and Alibaba pressure costs and accessibility. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on agentic and coding tasks, talent acquisition, compute scale, and features such as granular style or output control that enhance practical deployment. Upcoming model updates and third-party evaluations could quickly alter implied probabilities in this fluid landscape.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 36%
Meta 18%
Alibaba 16%
Tencent 12.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
36%
Meta
18%
Alibaba
21%
Tencent
12%
DeepSeek
8%
SpaceXAI
7%
Z.ai
7%
Baidu
7%
OpenAI
6%
ByteDance
6%
Anthropic
5%
Thinky
5%
MiniMax
4%
Amazon
4%
Moonshot
13%
Xiaomi
3%
Mistral
7%
Meituan
7%
Microsoft
1%
Nvidia
1%
StepFun
7%
Google 36%
Meta 18%
Alibaba 16%
Tencent 12.0%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
$1,899 Vol.
36%
Meta
$396 Vol.
18%
Alibaba
$362 Vol.
21%
Tencent
$226 Vol.
12%
DeepSeek
$145 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$145 Vol.
7%
Z.ai
$150 Vol.
7%
Baidu
$145 Vol.
7%
OpenAI
$150 Vol.
6%
ByteDance
$306 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$234 Vol.
5%
Thinky
$231 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$247 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$244 Vol.
4%
Moonshot
$180 Vol.
13%
Xiaomi
$333 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$250 Vol.
7%
Meituan
$397 Vol.
7%
Microsoft
$211 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$226 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$226 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third-place AI lab status by end of October, with Google, Meta, and several Chinese labs like Alibaba clustered near the front amid shifting benchmarks. Recent Gemini 3.1 releases have bolstered Google’s position through gains in efficiency, dynamic reasoning controls, and multimodal capabilities, while open-weight models from DeepSeek and Alibaba pressure costs and accessibility. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on agentic and coding tasks, talent acquisition, compute scale, and features such as granular style or output control that enhance practical deployment. Upcoming model updates and third-party evaluations could quickly alter implied probabilities in this fluid landscape.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$6,685Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for third-place AI lab status by end of October, with Google, Meta, and several Chinese labs like Alibaba clustered near the front amid shifting benchmarks. Recent Gemini 3.1 releases have bolstered Google’s position through gains in efficiency, dynamic reasoning controls, and multimodal capabilities, while open-weight models from DeepSeek and Alibaba pressure costs and accessibility. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on agentic and coding tasks, talent acquisition, compute scale, and features such as granular style or output control that enhance practical deployment. Upcoming model updates and third-party evaluations could quickly alter implied probabilities in this fluid landscape.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$6,685Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for third-place AI lab status by end of October, with Google, Meta, and several Chinese labs like Alibaba clustered near the front amid shifting benchmarks. Recent Gemini 3.1 releases have bolstered Google’s position through gains in efficiency, dynamic reasoning controls, and multimodal capabilities, while open-weight models from DeepSeek and Alibaba pressure costs and accessibility. Key differentiators include demonstrated performance on agentic and coding tasks, talent acquisition, compute scale, and features such as granular style or output control that enhance practical deployment. Upcoming model updates and third-party evaluations could quickly alter implied probabilities in this fluid landscape.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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