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icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

icon for Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?

déc. 31

déc. 31

12% chance
Polymarket

$63,742 Vol.

12% chance
Polymarket

$63,742 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ahmed al-Sharaa remains Syria’s transitional president, appointed in January 2025 for a five-year mandate under the constitutional declaration, with no verified developments indicating removal by the end of 2026.** Recent actions reinforcing stability include a May 2026 cabinet and administrative reshuffle addressing internal criticism, plus security operations dismantling Hezbollah-linked cells. International sanctions on al-Sharaa and HTS were lifted in late 2025, followed by high-level diplomacy including a White House meeting with President Trump and engagement with Arab states and Turkey. These steps reflect consolidated authority and external backing, while ongoing efforts to integrate factions like the SDF and manage sectarian tensions have not produced leadership challenges capable of altering the transition timeline. Trader consensus at 87.5% for “No” aligns with the absence of credible ouster signals within the structured interim framework.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$63,742
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:58 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ahmed al-Sharaa remains Syria’s transitional president, appointed in January 2025 for a five-year mandate under the constitutional declaration, with no verified developments indicating removal by the end of 2026.** Recent actions reinforcing stability include a May 2026 cabinet and administrative reshuffle addressing internal criticism, plus security operations dismantling Hezbollah-linked cells. International sanctions on al-Sharaa and HTS were lifted in late 2025, followed by high-level diplomacy including a White House meeting with President Trump and engagement with Arab states and Turkey. These steps reflect consolidated authority and external backing, while ongoing efforts to integrate factions like the SDF and manage sectarian tensions have not produced leadership challenges capable of altering the transition timeline. Trader consensus at 87.5% for “No” aligns with the absence of credible ouster signals within the structured interim framework.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$63,742
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:58 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 12% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 12¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 12% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? » a généré $63.7K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? » est de 12% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 12% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.