The contest between Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures and Republican Rhett Marques in Alabama’s 2nd district remains closely matched because the newly redrawn lines tilt toward Republicans while Figures retains incumbency advantages and benefits from strong Black voter turnout potential. Recent Democratic internal polls show the candidates statistically tied at 46-47 percent each, consistent with trader pricing that clusters heavily around narrow Republican or Democratic margins under 5 points or 5-10 points. Marques consolidated the GOP nomination in the August primary with endorsements from President Trump and Senator Katie Britt, yet the race’s competitiveness reflects the district’s underlying partisan balance and the roughly seven weeks remaining until November 3 voting. Late shifts in turnout, national generic ballot trends, or additional polling could widen or narrow the expected margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDémocrate 5 %+ 42.4%
Républicain 10-15 % 42.2%
Républicain 0-5 % 42.0%
Républicain 20-25 % 32.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 25 %+
27%
Républicain 20-25 %
32%
Républicain 15-20 %
28%
Républicain 10-15 %
42%
Républicain 5-10 %
24%
Républicain 0-5 %
42%
Démocrate 0-5%
32%
Démocrate 5 %+
42%
Démocrate 5 %+ 42.4%
Républicain 10-15 % 42.2%
Républicain 0-5 % 42.0%
Républicain 20-25 % 32.4%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Républicain 25 %+
$168 Vol.
27%
Républicain 20-25 %
$80 Vol.
32%
Républicain 15-20 %
$171 Vol.
28%
Républicain 10-15 %
$40 Vol.
42%
Républicain 5-10 %
$80 Vol.
24%
Républicain 0-5 %
$80 Vol.
42%
Démocrate 0-5%
$98 Vol.
32%
Démocrate 5 %+
$178 Vol.
42%
The 2026 AL-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The contest between Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures and Republican Rhett Marques in Alabama’s 2nd district remains closely matched because the newly redrawn lines tilt toward Republicans while Figures retains incumbency advantages and benefits from strong Black voter turnout potential. Recent Democratic internal polls show the candidates statistically tied at 46-47 percent each, consistent with trader pricing that clusters heavily around narrow Republican or Democratic margins under 5 points or 5-10 points. Marques consolidated the GOP nomination in the August primary with endorsements from President Trump and Senator Katie Britt, yet the race’s competitiveness reflects the district’s underlying partisan balance and the roughly seven weeks remaining until November 3 voting. Late shifts in turnout, national generic ballot trends, or additional polling could widen or narrow the expected margin.
The 2026 AL-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ET
Volume
$895Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 AL-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The contest between Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures and Republican Rhett Marques in Alabama’s 2nd district remains closely matched because the newly redrawn lines tilt toward Republicans while Figures retains incumbency advantages and benefits from strong Black voter turnout potential. Recent Democratic internal polls show the candidates statistically tied at 46-47 percent each, consistent with trader pricing that clusters heavily around narrow Republican or Democratic margins under 5 points or 5-10 points. Marques consolidated the GOP nomination in the August primary with endorsements from President Trump and Senator Katie Britt, yet the race’s competitiveness reflects the district’s underlying partisan balance and the roughly seven weeks remaining until November 3 voting. Late shifts in turnout, national generic ballot trends, or additional polling could widen or narrow the expected margin.
The 2026 AL-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AL-02 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$895Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 3:34 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The contest between Democratic incumbent Shomari Figures and Republican Rhett Marques in Alabama’s 2nd district remains closely matched because the newly redrawn lines tilt toward Republicans while Figures retains incumbency advantages and benefits from strong Black voter turnout potential. Recent Democratic internal polls show the candidates statistically tied at 46-47 percent each, consistent with trader pricing that clusters heavily around narrow Republican or Democratic margins under 5 points or 5-10 points. Marques consolidated the GOP nomination in the August primary with endorsements from President Trump and Senator Katie Britt, yet the race’s competitiveness reflects the district’s underlying partisan balance and the roughly seven weeks remaining until November 3 voting. Late shifts in turnout, national generic ballot trends, or additional polling could widen or narrow the expected margin.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection à la Chambre de l'AL-01 en 2026 avec une avance de 20 % à 25 % ?
24%
Oui
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-06 House election by 25%-30%?
36%
Le candidat du Parti républicain remportera-t-il l'élection de la Chambre AL-03 de 2026 avec une avance de 35 % à 40 % ?
21%
Oui
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