Prédictions et cotes des élections de mi-mandat 2026 | Polymarket

Mis à jour août 12, 2026 22:00 ET

2026 Élection de mi-mandat Cotes et prédictions

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2026

Élection de mi-mandat

Mis à jour août 12, 2026 22:00 ET

Cotes et prédictions

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JOURS

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HEURES

Élection de mi-mandat

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Cotes et prédictions

Trader$100 -> $190

53% chance Démocrates
remportent le Sénat

Trader$100 -> $190

+1% 7 derniers jours ·$4M vol

49 SIÈGES RÉPUBLICAINS AU SÉNAT RÉPUBLICAINS51 SIÈGES DÉMOCRATES AU SÉNAT DÉMOCRATES

Trader$100 -> $114

88% chance Démocrates
remportent le Chambre

Trader$100 -> $114

+0% 7 derniers jours ·$9M vol

190 SIÈGES RÉPUBLICAINS AU CHAMBRE RÉPUBLICAINS245 SIÈGES DÉMOCRATES AU CHAMBRE DÉMOCRATES

Sûr D

Probable D

Penche D

Incertain

Penche R

Probable R

Sûr R

Pas de course

Incertain

Penche D

Probable D

Sûr D

Pas de course

Penche R

Probable R

Sûr R

Référendums

principaux marchés thématiques

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

69% de chance non

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

96% de chance non

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

61% de chance non

Colorado passes ballot measure imposing life sentences on underage sex traffickers?

82% de chance oui

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

69% de chance non

Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

91% de chance oui

Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

55% de chance oui

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

98% de chance oui

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

53% de chance oui

Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?

66% de chance oui

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

69% de chance non

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

96% de chance non

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

61% de chance non

Courses majeures

marchés les plus décisifs

AK Governor

57% Démocrate

TX Senate

52% Démocrate

ME Senate

69% Démocrate

AK Senate

51% Démocrate

MI Senate

58% Démocrate

AK Governor

57% Démocrate

TX Senate

52% Démocrate

ME Senate

69% Démocrate

Toutes les courses

583 marchés

Course

État

Fav

Niveau

Affichage de 25 sur 50 marchés

Cotes des mi-mandat 2026

Cotes des élections de mi-mandat 2026 — Cotes en direct des marchés de prédiction
Marché	Principaux prétendants et candidats	Cotes en direct
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	93%
	Steve Hilton	7%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Troy Jackson (D)	70%
	Susan Collins (R)	31%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	56%
	Bernadette Wilson	30%
	Treg Taylor	6%
	David Bronson	3%
	Click Bishop	2%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	2%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
	Bill Walker	1%
Texas Senate Election Winner	James Talarico (D)	52%
	Ken Paxton (R)	48%
Alaska Senate Election Winner	Mary Peltola	51%
	Dan Sullivan	49%
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Abdul El-Sayed (D)	60%
	Mike Rogers (R)	42%
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner	Randy Fine	97%
	Alexandra Van Cleef	1%
	Aaron Baker	1%
	Dan Bilzerian	1%
	Charles Gambaro	1%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Ashley Hinson (R)	57%
	Josh Turek (D)	44%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	David Crowley (D)	77%
	Tom Tiffany (R)	23%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Amy Acton (D)	53%
	Vivek Ramaswamy (R)	45%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	92%
	Independent	6%
Georgia Senate Election Winner	Jon Ossoff (D)	92%
	Mike Collins (R)	8%
New York Governor Election Winner	Democrat	94%
	Republican	6%
FL-09 Republican Primary Winner	Ben Butler	48%
	Thomas Chalifoux	27%
	Dan Green	8%
	Jorge Martinez	4%
Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Amy Klobuchar (D)	93%
	Lisa Demuth (R)	5%
Iowa Governor Election Winner	Rob Sand (D)	72%
	Zach Lahn (R)	27%
FL-19 Republican Primary Winner	Catalina Lauf	47%
	Jim Schwartzel	40%
	Jim Oberweis	15%
	Madison Cawthorn	1%
	Bob Rommel	1%
FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner	Lois Frankel	96%
	Victoria Doyle	3%
Nevada Governor Election Winner	Joe Lombardo (R)	63%
	Aaron Ford (D)	38%
FL-22 Republican Primary Winner	Michael Carbonara	46%
	David Burck	35%
	Belinda Keiser	14%
	Casey Askar	6%
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner	Austin Rogers	65%
	Keith Gross	25%
	Evan Power	4%
	Jim Norton	3%
FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner	James Martin	71%
	Bernard Taylor	31%
FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner	Jared Moskowitz	89%
	Oliver Larkin	11%
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrat	87%
	Republican	14%
Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Peggy Flanagan (D)	93%
	Michele Tafoya (R)	9%
FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	89%
	Elijah Manley	12%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	Bell 16%+	100%
	Bell 8–12%	1%
FL-07 Republican Primary Winner	Cory Mills	50%
	Ryan Elijah	49%
FL-25 Republican Primary Winner	Scott Singer	75%
	Dan Franzese	14%
	George Moraitis	12%
	Joseph Kaufman	1%
Maryland Governor Election Winner	Democrat	96%
	Republican	4%
WY-AL Republican Primary Winner	Steve Friess	54%
	Chuck Gray	34%
	Kevin Christensen	11%
	Reid Rasner	3%
	Bo Biteman	1%
	Frank Chapman	1%
	David Giralt	1%
	John Romero-Martinez	1%
FL-14 Republican Primary Winner	Kevin Steele	62%
	Mike Beltran	34%
FL-11 Republican Primary Winner	Joe Strada	67%
	Carey Baker	25%
	Tim Wilkins	9%
FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Nic Zateslo	30%
	Yen Bailey	28%
	Amanda Green	27%
	Brice Barnes	8%
New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Republican	80%
	Democrat	19%
Kansas Governor Election Winner	Republican	58%
	Democrat	39%
MA-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Richard Neal	90%
	Jeromie Whalen	11%
FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner	LaShonda "L.J." Holloway	78%
	Michael Kirwan	21%
	Brit Robinson	2%
FL-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Eric Yonce	69%
	Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera	31%
	Robert Cooper	1%
	Steve Morgan	1%
FL-05 Republican Primary Winner	John Rutherford	96%
	Mark Kaye	3%
FL-27 Democratic Primary Winner	Eliott Rodriguez	89%
	Robin Peguero	10%
MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner	Jake Auchincloss	91%
	Jason Poulos	7%
Kansas Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 0-3%	22%
	Democrat 0-3%	20%
	Republican 12-15%	19%
	Republican 3-6%	14%
	Democrat 3-6%	12%
	Republican 18%+	10%
	Republican 6-9%	7%
	Democrat 6%+	6%
	Republican 9-12%	5%
	Republican 15-18%	3%
Arizona Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 9-12%	21%
	Democrat 6-9%	16%
	Democrat 12-15%	14%
	Democrat 3-6%	13%
	Republican 0-3%	12%
	Democrat 15-18%	11%
	Democrat 0-3%	10%
	Democrat 18%+	9%
	Republican 3-6%	4%
	Republican 6%+	3%
Wyoming Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 45-50%	33%
	Republican 35-40%	17%
	Republican 25-30%	12%
	Republican 15-20%	10%
	Republican 40-45%	8%
	Republican 30-35%	8%
	Republican 20-25%	8%
	Republican 10-15%	7%
	Republican 50%+	6%
	Republican 0-10%	5%
	Democrat Wins	4%
Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 6-9%	20%
	Republican 3-6%	17%
	Republican 0-3%	16%
	Democrat 0-3%	11%
	Republican 21%+	9%
	Republican 12-15%	9%
	Republican 9-12%	9%
	Republican 18-21%	7%
	Republican 15-18%	7%
	Democrat 3%+	4%
Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)	Democrat 6-9%	14%
	Republican 3-6%	12%
	Democrat 0-3%	12%
	Democrat 9-12%	12%
	Republican 6-9%	11%
	Republican 0-3%	11%
	Democrat 3-6%	9%
	Democrat 12%+	9%
	Republican 12%+	5%
	Republican 9-12%	4%
New Hampshire Senate Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 3-6%	20%
	Democrat 15-18%	19%
	Democrat 6-9%	16%
	Democrat 0-3%	15%
	Democrat 12-15%	13%
	Republican 0-3%	12%
	Democrat 9-12%	12%
	Republican 6%+	10%
	Republican 3-6%	7%
	Democrat 18%+	7%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	32%
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?	Yes	39%

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

Maine Senate Election Winner Troy Jackson (D)

Susan Collins (R)

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

Bernadette Wilson

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Nancy Dahlstrom

Texas Senate Election Winner James Talarico (D)

Alaska Senate Election Winner Mary Peltola

Michigan Senate Election Winner Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Mike Rogers (R)

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Randy Fine

Alexandra Van Cleef

Charles Gambaro

Iowa Senate Election Winner Ashley Hinson (R)

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner David Crowley (D)

Tom Tiffany (R)

Ohio Governor Election Winner Amy Acton (D)

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

Georgia Senate Election Winner Jon Ossoff (D)

Mike Collins (R)

New York Governor Election Winner Democrat

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner Ben Butler

Thomas Chalifoux

Minnesota Governor Election Winner Amy Klobuchar (D)

Lisa Demuth (R)

Iowa Governor Election Winner Rob Sand (D)

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner Catalina Lauf

Madison Cawthorn

FL-23 Democratic Primary Winner Lois Frankel

Nevada Governor Election Winner Joe Lombardo (R)

FL-22 Republican Primary Winner Michael Carbonara

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner Austin Rogers

FL-21 Democratic Primary Winner James Martin

FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner Jared Moskowitz

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Democrat

Minnesota Senate Election Winner Peggy Flanagan (D)

Michele Tafoya (R)

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner Debbie Wasserman Schultz

MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory Bell 16%+

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner Cory Mills

FL-25 Republican Primary Winner Scott Singer

George Moraitis

Maryland Governor Election Winner Democrat

WY-AL Republican Primary Winner Steve Friess

Kevin Christensen

John Romero-Martinez

FL-14 Republican Primary Winner Kevin Steele

FL-11 Republican Primary Winner Joe Strada

FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner Nic Zateslo

New Hampshire Governor Election Winner Republican

Kansas Governor Election Winner Republican

MA-01 Democratic Primary Winner Richard Neal

FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner LaShonda "L.J." Holloway

FL-06 Democratic Primary Winner Eric Yonce

Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera

FL-05 Republican Primary Winner John Rutherford

FL-27 Democratic Primary Winner Eliott Rodriguez

MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner Jake Auchincloss

Kansas Governor Election Margin of Victory Republican 0-3%

Republican 12-15%

Republican 3-6%

Republican 18%+

Republican 6-9%

Republican 9-12%

Republican 15-18%

Arizona Governor Election Margin of Victory Democrat 9-12%

Democrat 12-15%

Republican 0-3%

Democrat 15-18%

Republican 3-6%

Wyoming Senate Election Margin of Victory Republican 45-50%

Republican 35-40%

Republican 25-30%

Republican 15-20%

Republican 40-45%

Republican 30-35%

Republican 20-25%

Republican 10-15%

Republican 50%+

Republican 0-10%

Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory Republican 6-9%

Republican 3-6%

Republican 0-3%

Republican 21%+

Republican 12-15%

Republican 9-12%

Republican 18-21%

Republican 15-18%

Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)Democrat 6-9%

Republican 3-6%

Republican 6-9%

Republican 0-3%

Republican 12%+

Republican 9-12%

New Hampshire Senate Election Margin of Victory Democrat 3-6%

Democrat 15-18%

Democrat 12-15%

Republican 0-3%

Republican 3-6%

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?Yes

À propos des élections de mi-mandat 2026 aux États-Unis

Les élections de mi-mandat 2026 aux États-Unis sont prévues pour le 3 novembre 2026 et détermineront la composition du 120e Congrès des États-Unis ainsi qu'un large éventail de postes étatiques et locaux. Les 435 sièges de la Chambre des représentants, 35 des 100 sièges du Sénat, 36 postes de gouverneur à travers les États américains, et de nombreuses courses législatives, exécutives et locales figureront sur les bulletins de vote à travers le pays. Ce sont les premières élections de mi-mandat nationales à se dérouler pendant un second mandat présidentiel non consécutif depuis 1894, le préside...

FAQ

Chambre88% DEM

Sénat53% DEM