Marine Le Pen maintains a commanding lead in first-round polling at 34–36 percent and wins every tested runoff matchup, reflecting broad trader consensus on her frontrunner status ahead of the April 2027 vote. Recent court rulings reduced her prior ineligibility period, enabling her candidacy while an appeal remains pending. David Lisnard has gained ground on the center-right through his independent Nouvelle Énergie movement and local profile, drawing support in scenarios where traditional Republicans fragment. Jean-Luc Mélenchon holds a solid but distant second place near 19 percent amid left-wing divisions following the New Popular Front split. Waning support for centrist figures such as Édouard Philippe and the absence of a unified moderate coalition have further concentrated probabilities around these leading contenders.