Flávio Bolsonaro holds dominant positioning for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of other non-Lula candidates after consolidating right-wing support behind the Liberal Party ticket endorsed by his father. Lula leads first-round surveys at 38–42 percent as the incumbent seeking a fourth term, while Flávio trails at 31–33 percent; fragmented alternatives such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado remain in the low single digits. August Quaest and Datafolha surveys show the gap between the top two narrowing modestly amid ongoing economic concerns and public security priorities, yet the right’s unified backing behind Flávio has limited room for challengers to close in before the first round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFlávio Bolsonaro 83%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 9.3%
Renan Santos 7.4%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,672,406 Vol.
$4,672,406 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
83%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
9%
Renan Santos
7%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 83%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 9.3%
Renan Santos 7.4%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$4,672,406 Vol.
$4,672,406 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
83%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
9%
Renan Santos
7%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Flávio Bolsonaro holds dominant positioning for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote because recent polling consistently places him well ahead of other non-Lula candidates after consolidating right-wing support behind the Liberal Party ticket endorsed by his father. Lula leads first-round surveys at 38–42 percent as the incumbent seeking a fourth term, while Flávio trails at 31–33 percent; fragmented alternatives such as Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado remain in the low single digits. August Quaest and Datafolha surveys show the gap between the top two narrowing modestly amid ongoing economic concerns and public security priorities, yet the right’s unified backing behind Flávio has limited room for challengers to close in before the first round.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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