Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race with trader consensus at 67% implied probability, driven by consistent polling leads of roughly 10 points over incumbent Elmano de Freitas ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Multiple surveys from late July, including Quaest and Ipsos, placed Gomes in the low-to-mid 40s while de Freitas registered in the low 30s, reflecting the former governor’s name recognition, PSDB alliances, and emphasis on public security. The two frontrunners clashed in an August 9 debate on state issues, with minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão remaining far behind in both surveys and market pricing. The race remains subject to shifts from coalition negotiations or late developments before the potential October 25 runoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCeará Governor Election Winner
Ceará Governor Election Winner
Ciro Gomes 67%
Elmano de Freitas 35%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$128,009 Vol.
$128,009 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Ciro Gomes
67%
Elmano de Freitas
35%
Eduardo Girão
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Capitão Wagner
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
<1%
Ciro Gomes 67%
Elmano de Freitas 35%
Eduardo Girão <1%
Camilo Santana <1%
$128,009 Vol.
$128,009 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
Ciro Gomes
$74,854 Vol.
67%
Elmano de Freitas
$22,808 Vol.
35%
Eduardo Girão
$8,761 Vol.
1%
Camilo Santana
$6,387 Vol.
1%
Capitão Wagner
$8,178 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Cláudio
$7,021 Vol.
<1%
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race with trader consensus at 67% implied probability, driven by consistent polling leads of roughly 10 points over incumbent Elmano de Freitas ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Multiple surveys from late July, including Quaest and Ipsos, placed Gomes in the low-to-mid 40s while de Freitas registered in the low 30s, reflecting the former governor’s name recognition, PSDB alliances, and emphasis on public security. The two frontrunners clashed in an August 9 debate on state issues, with minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão remaining far behind in both surveys and market pricing. The race remains subject to shifts from coalition negotiations or late developments before the potential October 25 runoff.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volume
$128,009Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race with trader consensus at 67% implied probability, driven by consistent polling leads of roughly 10 points over incumbent Elmano de Freitas ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Multiple surveys from late July, including Quaest and Ipsos, placed Gomes in the low-to-mid 40s while de Freitas registered in the low 30s, reflecting the former governor’s name recognition, PSDB alliances, and emphasis on public security. The two frontrunners clashed in an August 9 debate on state issues, with minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão remaining far behind in both surveys and market pricing. The race remains subject to shifts from coalition negotiations or late developments before the potential October 25 runoff.
The Ceará gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$128,009Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ciro Gomes leads the Ceará gubernatorial race with trader consensus at 67% implied probability, driven by consistent polling leads of roughly 10 points over incumbent Elmano de Freitas ahead of the October 4, 2026 first round. Multiple surveys from late July, including Quaest and Ipsos, placed Gomes in the low-to-mid 40s while de Freitas registered in the low 30s, reflecting the former governor’s name recognition, PSDB alliances, and emphasis on public security. The two frontrunners clashed in an August 9 debate on state issues, with minor candidates such as Eduardo Girão remaining far behind in both surveys and market pricing. The race remains subject to shifts from coalition negotiations or late developments before the potential October 25 runoff.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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