Recent August 2026 polls for the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt state election show the AfD leading with 41-43% support, ahead of the CDU at 22-24% and smaller parties clustered near or below the 5% threshold. In the roughly 83-seat Landtag, an absolute majority requires at least 42 seats. Current surveys project the AfD near but typically short of this mark under Germany’s mixed-member proportional system, which accounts for overhang mandates and smaller-party performance. The state intelligence service’s classification of the AfD’s regional branch as right-wing extremist has drawn national attention but has not altered polling trends or coalition barriers. Traders price the “No” outcome at 69.5% because these consistent projections and structural factors make an outright majority unlikely absent a late surge.