Recent opinion polls ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, Riksdag election show the centre-left bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a modest lead over the incumbent right-wing Tidö parties (Moderates, Christian Democrats, Liberals supported by Sweden Democrats). The gap has narrowed slightly from earlier summer readings, with the Liberals polling near or below the 4% threshold. Key variables for post-election government formation include whether the Red-Green parties secure a majority on their own, the Centre Party’s willingness to negotiate with either side, and seat totals that determine viable coalitions or minority arrangements. High undecided voter shares and the short campaign window leave room for late shifts in bloc positioning.