**Republican congressional majorities have blocked all serious removal efforts.** Democratic calls for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment peaked in April 2026 after Trump’s Iran-related statements, but House Republicans defeated or tabled the resolutions and no Cabinet majority has moved to declare incapacity. Trump continues to exercise full presidential powers, issuing executive orders on trade, elections, and domestic policy while managing Cabinet turnover through direct removals and Senate-confirmed replacements. With unified GOP control of both chambers until at least the November 2026 midterms, conviction on articles of impeachment or the two-thirds congressional vote required under the 25th Amendment remains structurally improbable. Traders therefore assign only a 5.5% chance that Trump leaves office before January 1, 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
6% chance
$10,672,920 Vol.
$10,672,920 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
$10,672,920 Vol.
$10,672,920 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican congressional majorities have blocked all serious removal efforts.** Democratic calls for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment peaked in April 2026 after Trump’s Iran-related statements, but House Republicans defeated or tabled the resolutions and no Cabinet majority has moved to declare incapacity.
Trump continues to exercise full presidential powers, issuing executive orders on trade, elections, and domestic policy while managing Cabinet turnover through direct removals and Senate-confirmed replacements. With unified GOP control of both chambers until at least the November 2026 midterms, conviction on articles of impeachment or the two-thirds congressional vote required under the 25th Amendment remains structurally improbable. Traders therefore assign only a 5.5% chance that Trump leaves office before January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,672,920Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican congressional majorities have blocked all serious removal efforts.** Democratic calls for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment peaked in April 2026 after Trump’s Iran-related statements, but House Republicans defeated or tabled the resolutions and no Cabinet majority has moved to declare incapacity.
Trump continues to exercise full presidential powers, issuing executive orders on trade, elections, and domestic policy while managing Cabinet turnover through direct removals and Senate-confirmed replacements. With unified GOP control of both chambers until at least the November 2026 midterms, conviction on articles of impeachment or the two-thirds congressional vote required under the 25th Amendment remains structurally improbable. Traders therefore assign only a 5.5% chance that Trump leaves office before January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,672,920Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Republican congressional majorities have blocked all serious removal efforts.** Democratic calls for impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment peaked in April 2026 after Trump’s Iran-related statements, but House Republicans defeated or tabled the resolutions and no Cabinet majority has moved to declare incapacity. Trump continues to exercise full presidential powers, issuing executive orders on trade, elections, and domestic policy while managing Cabinet turnover through direct removals and Senate-confirmed replacements. With unified GOP control of both chambers until at least the November 2026 midterms, conviction on articles of impeachment or the two-thirds congressional vote required under the 25th Amendment remains structurally improbable. Traders therefore assign only a 5.5% chance that Trump leaves office before January 1, 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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