Trump’s continued tenure through the end of 2026 reflects the constitutional threshold for removal, which requires a House impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction vote that current seat projections place well beyond reach even after Democratic midterm gains. Traders assign 97.4 percent probability to “No” because the short remaining window leaves insufficient time for any process to produce sustained removal, historical Senate acquittals set a clear precedent, and no verified developments indicate health incapacity or voluntary resignation. The incoming Democratic majorities enable oversight and potential articles of impeachment, yet these steps alone do not trigger market resolution. Late developments such as a sudden medical crisis invoking the 25th Amendment or an unforeseen bipartisan consensus could still alter the outcome, though both remain low-probability events within the resolution period ending December 31, 2026.