Trump entered his second term in January 2025 after securing the 2024 election. Through mid-2026, no congressional majorities have pursued impeachment, no serious health announcements have surfaced, and legal proceedings against him remain resolved or dormant. Republican control of both chambers of Congress has blocked any realistic path to removal via the Senate, while polling shows consistent backing from core supporters. Historical patterns indicate that sitting presidents almost never depart office early without extraordinary events, and no such catalysts have materialized in the first sixteen months. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that Trump completes his term through the end of 2026, with only low-probability scenarios such as sudden medical incapacity or an unforeseen scandal able to alter the current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$8,518,540 Vol.
$8,518,540 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$8,518,540 Vol.
$8,518,540 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump entered his second term in January 2025 after securing the 2024 election. Through mid-2026, no congressional majorities have pursued impeachment, no serious health announcements have surfaced, and legal proceedings against him remain resolved or dormant. Republican control of both chambers of Congress has blocked any realistic path to removal via the Senate, while polling shows consistent backing from core supporters. Historical patterns indicate that sitting presidents almost never depart office early without extraordinary events, and no such catalysts have materialized in the first sixteen months. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that Trump completes his term through the end of 2026, with only low-probability scenarios such as sudden medical incapacity or an unforeseen scandal able to alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ET
Volume
$8,518,540Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump entered his second term in January 2025 after securing the 2024 election. Through mid-2026, no congressional majorities have pursued impeachment, no serious health announcements have surfaced, and legal proceedings against him remain resolved or dormant. Republican control of both chambers of Congress has blocked any realistic path to removal via the Senate, while polling shows consistent backing from core supporters. Historical patterns indicate that sitting presidents almost never depart office early without extraordinary events, and no such catalysts have materialized in the first sixteen months. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that Trump completes his term through the end of 2026, with only low-probability scenarios such as sudden medical incapacity or an unforeseen scandal able to alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$8,518,540Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 4:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump entered his second term in January 2025 after securing the 2024 election. Through mid-2026, no congressional majorities have pursued impeachment, no serious health announcements have surfaced, and legal proceedings against him remain resolved or dormant. Republican control of both chambers of Congress has blocked any realistic path to removal via the Senate, while polling shows consistent backing from core supporters. Historical patterns indicate that sitting presidents almost never depart office early without extraordinary events, and no such catalysts have materialized in the first sixteen months. Traders therefore assign a 90.5 percent probability that Trump completes his term through the end of 2026, with only low-probability scenarios such as sudden medical incapacity or an unforeseen scandal able to alter the current consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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