Ongoing conflict since February 28, 2026, has kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted, with AIS-visible transits averaging roughly 6-9 vessels daily against a pre-crisis baseline of 80-88. Iran requires coordination with its Revolutionary Guards and designated routes, while unverified claims of mine strikes and projectile attacks on tankers continue into mid-November. US naval escorts and blockade operations support limited dark transits, yet overall flows remain far below normal amid persistent security incidents. Diplomatic channels, including recent UN Security Council discussions and mediator efforts by Oman and Qatar, have not produced a framework for full reopening. With only weeks remaining until year-end, sustained Iranian conditions, active risks, and absence of verified de-escalation agreements continue to shape trader assessments of normalization prospects.