Amid stalled ceasefire talks in the ongoing US-Iran conflict now over 75 days old, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over high-level diplomatic meetings by May 31, driven by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's recent tour through Pakistan, Oman, Russia, and China to ease tensions via mediators. Backchannel progress via Pakistan has raised hopes for a memorandum of understanding, including proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear discussions, though Tehran denies direct US negotiations. Key upcoming events include today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing—where Iran features prominently alongside trade—and India's BRICS foreign ministers' meeting, potentially involving Araghchi, which could catalyze breakthroughs or further delays in direct engagements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$79,501 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Jared Kushner
22%
Steve Witkoff
17%
J.D. Vance
12%
Marco Rubio
5%
Donald Trump
3%
$79,501 Vol.
Jared Kushner
$22,406 Vol.
22%
Steve Witkoff
$19,828 Vol.
17%
J.D. Vance
$22,273 Vol.
12%
Marco Rubio
$5,680 Vol.
5%
Donald Trump
$9,315 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid stalled ceasefire talks in the ongoing US-Iran conflict now over 75 days old, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over high-level diplomatic meetings by May 31, driven by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's recent tour through Pakistan, Oman, Russia, and China to ease tensions via mediators. Backchannel progress via Pakistan has raised hopes for a memorandum of understanding, including proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear discussions, though Tehran denies direct US negotiations. Key upcoming events include today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing—where Iran features prominently alongside trade—and India's BRICS foreign ministers' meeting, potentially involving Araghchi, which could catalyze breakthroughs or further delays in direct engagements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$79,501Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Amid stalled ceasefire talks in the ongoing US-Iran conflict now over 75 days old, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over high-level diplomatic meetings by May 31, driven by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's recent tour through Pakistan, Oman, Russia, and China to ease tensions via mediators. Backchannel progress via Pakistan has raised hopes for a memorandum of understanding, including proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear discussions, though Tehran denies direct US negotiations. Key upcoming events include today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing—where Iran features prominently alongside trade—and India's BRICS foreign ministers' meeting, potentially involving Araghchi, which could catalyze breakthroughs or further delays in direct engagements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$79,501Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid stalled ceasefire talks in the ongoing US-Iran conflict now over 75 days old, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over high-level diplomatic meetings by May 31, driven by Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's recent tour through Pakistan, Oman, Russia, and China to ease tensions via mediators. Backchannel progress via Pakistan has raised hopes for a memorandum of understanding, including proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear discussions, though Tehran denies direct US negotiations. Key upcoming events include today's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing—where Iran features prominently alongside trade—and India's BRICS foreign ministers' meeting, potentially involving Araghchi, which could catalyze breakthroughs or further delays in direct engagements.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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