Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, intensified since April 2026 amid ceasefire talks, have stalled over uranium enrichment terms, driving trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end enrichment by May 31. Iran recently proposed limiting enrichment to 3.5%, downblending stockpiles, and a short-term suspension—far short of the US demand for a 20-year moratorium or permanent halt—while rejecting preconditions and threatening 90% enrichment escalation if attacked. IAEA reports confirm Iran's continued high-level enrichment at facilities like Natanz and Fordow, with no verified pause. Despite President Trump's optimistic statements and Iranian calls for its counterproposal as "reasonable," no breakthrough has occurred in the past week, leaving significant barriers with under three weeks remaining before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 31 mai ?
L'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 31 mai ?
Oui
$604,081 Vol.
$604,081 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Oui
$604,081 Vol.
$604,081 Vol.
31 mai 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, intensified since April 2026 amid ceasefire talks, have stalled over uranium enrichment terms, driving trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end enrichment by May 31. Iran recently proposed limiting enrichment to 3.5%, downblending stockpiles, and a short-term suspension—far short of the US demand for a 20-year moratorium or permanent halt—while rejecting preconditions and threatening 90% enrichment escalation if attacked. IAEA reports confirm Iran's continued high-level enrichment at facilities like Natanz and Fordow, with no verified pause. Despite President Trump's optimistic statements and Iranian calls for its counterproposal as "reasonable," no breakthrough has occurred in the past week, leaving significant barriers with under three weeks remaining before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ET
Volume
$604,081Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, intensified since April 2026 amid ceasefire talks, have stalled over uranium enrichment terms, driving trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end enrichment by May 31. Iran recently proposed limiting enrichment to 3.5%, downblending stockpiles, and a short-term suspension—far short of the US demand for a 20-year moratorium or permanent halt—while rejecting preconditions and threatening 90% enrichment escalation if attacked. IAEA reports confirm Iran's continued high-level enrichment at facilities like Natanz and Fordow, with no verified pause. Despite President Trump's optimistic statements and Iranian calls for its counterproposal as "reasonable," no breakthrough has occurred in the past week, leaving significant barriers with under three weeks remaining before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$604,081Date de fin
31 mai 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 10:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, intensified since April 2026 amid ceasefire talks, have stalled over uranium enrichment terms, driving trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability against Iran agreeing to end enrichment by May 31. Iran recently proposed limiting enrichment to 3.5%, downblending stockpiles, and a short-term suspension—far short of the US demand for a 20-year moratorium or permanent halt—while rejecting preconditions and threatening 90% enrichment escalation if attacked. IAEA reports confirm Iran's continued high-level enrichment at facilities like Natanz and Fordow, with no verified pause. Despite President Trump's optimistic statements and Iranian calls for its counterproposal as "reasonable," no breakthrough has occurred in the past week, leaving significant barriers with under three weeks remaining before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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