**Traders assign a 92% implied probability to no additional OPEC member exiting in 2026 because the United Arab Emirates' May 1 departure resolved the most prominent quota dispute within the group.** The UAE cited its desire for greater production flexibility and alignment with national energy plans after years of friction over output limits that left substantial capacity idle. Since then, OPEC and participating OPEC+ countries have maintained coordinated adjustments, including modest production increases agreed in May through August 2026, even amid external pressures such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Remaining members have shown no comparable public signals of imminent withdrawal, and historical patterns of exits (Angola in 2024, Qatar in 2019) have not triggered a cascade. Brief reports of Iraqi quota dissatisfaction in June 2026 did not escalate into formal exit steps. This stability, combined with the group's continued efforts to manage supply amid geopolitical constraints, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
8% chance
$160,131 Vol.
$160,131 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
8% chance
$160,131 Vol.
$160,131 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign a 92% implied probability to no additional OPEC member exiting in 2026 because the United Arab Emirates' May 1 departure resolved the most prominent quota dispute within the group.** The UAE cited its desire for greater production flexibility and alignment with national energy plans after years of friction over output limits that left substantial capacity idle.
Since then, OPEC and participating OPEC+ countries have maintained coordinated adjustments, including modest production increases agreed in May through August 2026, even amid external pressures such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Remaining members have shown no comparable public signals of imminent withdrawal, and historical patterns of exits (Angola in 2024, Qatar in 2019) have not triggered a cascade. Brief reports of Iraqi quota dissatisfaction in June 2026 did not escalate into formal exit steps.
This stability, combined with the group's continued efforts to manage supply amid geopolitical constraints, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$160,131Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign a 92% implied probability to no additional OPEC member exiting in 2026 because the United Arab Emirates' May 1 departure resolved the most prominent quota dispute within the group.** The UAE cited its desire for greater production flexibility and alignment with national energy plans after years of friction over output limits that left substantial capacity idle.
Since then, OPEC and participating OPEC+ countries have maintained coordinated adjustments, including modest production increases agreed in May through August 2026, even amid external pressures such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Remaining members have shown no comparable public signals of imminent withdrawal, and historical patterns of exits (Angola in 2024, Qatar in 2019) have not triggered a cascade. Brief reports of Iraqi quota dissatisfaction in June 2026 did not escalate into formal exit steps.
This stability, combined with the group's continued efforts to manage supply amid geopolitical constraints, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$160,131Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 92% implied probability to no additional OPEC member exiting in 2026 because the United Arab Emirates' May 1 departure resolved the most prominent quota dispute within the group.** The UAE cited its desire for greater production flexibility and alignment with national energy plans after years of friction over output limits that left substantial capacity idle. Since then, OPEC and participating OPEC+ countries have maintained coordinated adjustments, including modest production increases agreed in May through August 2026, even amid external pressures such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Remaining members have shown no comparable public signals of imminent withdrawal, and historical patterns of exits (Angola in 2024, Qatar in 2019) have not triggered a cascade. Brief reports of Iraqi quota dissatisfaction in June 2026 did not escalate into formal exit steps. This stability, combined with the group's continued efforts to manage supply amid geopolitical constraints, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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