The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, resolved the most prominent recent quota and sovereignty dispute within the group, leaving 11 members focused on coordinated output adjustments amid ongoing regional supply disruptions. Subsequent OPEC+ meetings through mid-2026 have emphasized modest production increases and stability rather than further departures, with no member announcing intent to exit or citing comparable national-interest conflicts. Remaining producers continue operating under existing frameworks despite geopolitical pressures, and historical patterns show departures often follow prolonged, public quota tensions absent here. This underpins trader consensus that additional exits are unlikely before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
8% chance
$160,131 Vol.
$160,131 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
8% chance
$160,131 Vol.
$160,131 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, resolved the most prominent recent quota and sovereignty dispute within the group, leaving 11 members focused on coordinated output adjustments amid ongoing regional supply disruptions. Subsequent OPEC+ meetings through mid-2026 have emphasized modest production increases and stability rather than further departures, with no member announcing intent to exit or citing comparable national-interest conflicts. Remaining producers continue operating under existing frameworks despite geopolitical pressures, and historical patterns show departures often follow prolonged, public quota tensions absent here. This underpins trader consensus that additional exits are unlikely before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$160,131Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, resolved the most prominent recent quota and sovereignty dispute within the group, leaving 11 members focused on coordinated output adjustments amid ongoing regional supply disruptions. Subsequent OPEC+ meetings through mid-2026 have emphasized modest production increases and stability rather than further departures, with no member announcing intent to exit or citing comparable national-interest conflicts. Remaining producers continue operating under existing frameworks despite geopolitical pressures, and historical patterns show departures often follow prolonged, public quota tensions absent here. This underpins trader consensus that additional exits are unlikely before year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$160,131Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, resolved the most prominent recent quota and sovereignty dispute within the group, leaving 11 members focused on coordinated output adjustments amid ongoing regional supply disruptions. Subsequent OPEC+ meetings through mid-2026 have emphasized modest production increases and stability rather than further departures, with no member announcing intent to exit or citing comparable national-interest conflicts. Remaining producers continue operating under existing frameworks despite geopolitical pressures, and historical patterns show departures often follow prolonged, public quota tensions absent here. This underpins trader consensus that additional exits are unlikely before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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