Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—announced April 28 amid quota disputes and geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict—no other member has indicated plans to exit, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 68.5%. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have issued official statements reaffirming commitment to OPEC and OPEC+, emphasizing production conformity amid volatile oil markets disrupted by Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historical exits like Angola's in 2024 were isolated, with no cascade effect, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings focus on output adjustments rather than further departures. While speculation lingers on potential holdouts like Nigeria or Libya, the absence of fresh diplomatic rifts or quota rebellions supports the market's view of stability through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
$92,584 Vol.
$92,584 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
$92,584 Vol.
$92,584 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—announced April 28 amid quota disputes and geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict—no other member has indicated plans to exit, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 68.5%. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have issued official statements reaffirming commitment to OPEC and OPEC+, emphasizing production conformity amid volatile oil markets disrupted by Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historical exits like Angola's in 2024 were isolated, with no cascade effect, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings focus on output adjustments rather than further departures. While speculation lingers on potential holdouts like Nigeria or Libya, the absence of fresh diplomatic rifts or quota rebellions supports the market's view of stability through year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$92,584Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—announced April 28 amid quota disputes and geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict—no other member has indicated plans to exit, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 68.5%. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have issued official statements reaffirming commitment to OPEC and OPEC+, emphasizing production conformity amid volatile oil markets disrupted by Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historical exits like Angola's in 2024 were isolated, with no cascade effect, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings focus on output adjustments rather than further departures. While speculation lingers on potential holdouts like Nigeria or Libya, the absence of fresh diplomatic rifts or quota rebellions supports the market's view of stability through year-end.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$92,584Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the United Arab Emirates' withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2026—announced April 28 amid quota disputes and geopolitical strains from the Iran conflict—no other member has indicated plans to exit, driving trader consensus toward "No" at 68.5%. Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia have issued official statements reaffirming commitment to OPEC and OPEC+, emphasizing production conformity amid volatile oil markets disrupted by Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historical exits like Angola's in 2024 were isolated, with no cascade effect, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings focus on output adjustments rather than further departures. While speculation lingers on potential holdouts like Nigeria or Libya, the absence of fresh diplomatic rifts or quota rebellions supports the market's view of stability through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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