The Iranian regime's institutional continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination has reinforced trader expectations against collapse before 2027. A clerical body installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, with military, security, and judicial bodies renewing allegiance to the theocratic structure. Security forces suppressed earlier protests through arrests and maintained order amid ongoing economic strain and internet blackouts, showing no significant defections or mass uprisings. Recent diplomatic moves, including April proposals to dictate ceasefire terms and May assertions of control, reflect regime cohesion despite internal factional debates and external pressure. These developments align with historical patterns of resilience under sanctions and military challenges, supporting the current 83.5% implied probability on "No."
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$17,909,025 Vol.
$17,909,025 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$17,909,025 Vol.
$17,909,025 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination has reinforced trader expectations against collapse before 2027. A clerical body installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, with military, security, and judicial bodies renewing allegiance to the theocratic structure. Security forces suppressed earlier protests through arrests and maintained order amid ongoing economic strain and internet blackouts, showing no significant defections or mass uprisings. Recent diplomatic moves, including April proposals to dictate ceasefire terms and May assertions of control, reflect regime cohesion despite internal factional debates and external pressure. These developments align with historical patterns of resilience under sanctions and military challenges, supporting the current 83.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$17,909,025Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's institutional continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination has reinforced trader expectations against collapse before 2027. A clerical body installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, with military, security, and judicial bodies renewing allegiance to the theocratic structure. Security forces suppressed earlier protests through arrests and maintained order amid ongoing economic strain and internet blackouts, showing no significant defections or mass uprisings. Recent diplomatic moves, including April proposals to dictate ceasefire terms and May assertions of control, reflect regime cohesion despite internal factional debates and external pressure. These developments align with historical patterns of resilience under sanctions and military challenges, supporting the current 83.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,909,025Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's institutional continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's assassination has reinforced trader expectations against collapse before 2027. A clerical body installed Mojtaba Khamenei as successor, with military, security, and judicial bodies renewing allegiance to the theocratic structure. Security forces suppressed earlier protests through arrests and maintained order amid ongoing economic strain and internet blackouts, showing no significant defections or mass uprisings. Recent diplomatic moves, including April proposals to dictate ceasefire terms and May assertions of control, reflect regime cohesion despite internal factional debates and external pressure. These developments align with historical patterns of resilience under sanctions and military challenges, supporting the current 83.5% implied probability on "No."
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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