Trader consensus reflects a 73.5% implied probability against a full-scale U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, driven by the ongoing limited air and naval campaign that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026, now in its third month without boots-on-the-ground escalation. Recent U.S. Central Command strikes, including retaliatory actions on May 7 targeting Iranian facilities, have severely degraded Tehran's military defenses, as testified by Admiral Brad Cooper on May 15, reducing perceived need for invasion amid mounting costs nearing $29 billion and congressional scrutiny. Stalled diplomacy persists, with Tehran rejecting U.S. peace proposals on May 11-13 and Trump warning of further action, but no official announcements signal ground troop commitments, prioritizing negotiations despite Strait of Hormuz tensions and proxy risks.