Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations following the 2026 conflict have produced a June framework agreement that includes sanctions relief, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and commitments to further talks on nuclear limits and regional security. These diplomatic steps, backed by official statements from the Trump administration and Iranian officials, reflect trader consensus that direct military invasion remains unlikely through 2026. Progress toward economic reconstruction plans and verified steps on enriched uranium has reduced escalation risks, with scheduled negotiation extensions providing structured channels short of ground operations. Historical patterns of sanctions diplomacy and the absence of recent major military triggers further support the 83.5% implied probability against invasion before 2027.