Geopolitical frictions around Iran and broader Middle East instability remain the dominant driver behind the 60.5% implied probability for 25-49 Strait of Hormuz transits this week. Traders are pricing in reduced tanker and commercial vessel flows due to elevated risk premiums on energy routes, with the 36.5% chance of fewer than 25 ships reflecting ongoing concerns over potential closures or insurance spikes that historically reroute volumes via pipelines or longer alternatives. Recent oil price volatility and any fresh sanctions signals have reinforced this cautious consensus, while the low odds on 50-plus outcomes underscore limited near-term de-escalation expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include weekly tanker tracking data and diplomatic updates that could shift market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz la semaine du 17 août ?
Combien de navires transitent par le détroit d'Ormuz la semaine du 17 août ?
25-49 59%
<25 38%
50-74 3.9%
100+ <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
<25
38%
25-49
59%
50-74
4%
75-99
<1%
100+
1%
25-49 59%
<25 38%
50-74 3.9%
100+ <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
<25
$2,234 Vol.
38%
25-49
$1,496 Vol.
59%
50-74
$627 Vol.
4%
75-99
$878 Vol.
<1%
100+
$468 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical frictions around Iran and broader Middle East instability remain the dominant driver behind the 60.5% implied probability for 25-49 Strait of Hormuz transits this week. Traders are pricing in reduced tanker and commercial vessel flows due to elevated risk premiums on energy routes, with the 36.5% chance of fewer than 25 ships reflecting ongoing concerns over potential closures or insurance spikes that historically reroute volumes via pipelines or longer alternatives. Recent oil price volatility and any fresh sanctions signals have reinforced this cautious consensus, while the low odds on 50-plus outcomes underscore limited near-term de-escalation expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include weekly tanker tracking data and diplomatic updates that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$5,702Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical frictions around Iran and broader Middle East instability remain the dominant driver behind the 60.5% implied probability for 25-49 Strait of Hormuz transits this week. Traders are pricing in reduced tanker and commercial vessel flows due to elevated risk premiums on energy routes, with the 36.5% chance of fewer than 25 ships reflecting ongoing concerns over potential closures or insurance spikes that historically reroute volumes via pipelines or longer alternatives. Recent oil price volatility and any fresh sanctions signals have reinforced this cautious consensus, while the low odds on 50-plus outcomes underscore limited near-term de-escalation expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include weekly tanker tracking data and diplomatic updates that could shift market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$5,702Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical frictions around Iran and broader Middle East instability remain the dominant driver behind the 60.5% implied probability for 25-49 Strait of Hormuz transits this week. Traders are pricing in reduced tanker and commercial vessel flows due to elevated risk premiums on energy routes, with the 36.5% chance of fewer than 25 ships reflecting ongoing concerns over potential closures or insurance spikes that historically reroute volumes via pipelines or longer alternatives. Recent oil price volatility and any fresh sanctions signals have reinforced this cautious consensus, while the low odds on 50-plus outcomes underscore limited near-term de-escalation expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include weekly tanker tracking data and diplomatic updates that could shift market-implied odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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