**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict. This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues. Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$18,636,352 Vol.
30 juin 2026
June 30
1%
December 31
16%
$18,636,352 Vol.
June 30
$4,009,352 Vol.
1%
December 31
$3,019,399 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict.
This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues.
Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$18,636,352Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict.
This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues.
Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$18,636,352Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, in U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran’s first supreme leader succession since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts elected his son Mojtaba Khamenei on March 8–9 via a temporary three-member council (including President Masoud Pezeshkian) under Article 111 of the constitution, establishing continuity amid active conflict. This rapid clerical and IRGC-backed transition has anchored trader consensus on low near-term further change, with markets pricing December 31 outcomes at around 17% and June 30 near 1%. Mojtaba’s installation reflects institutional preferences for regime stability over alternatives such as Hassan Khomeini or reformist figures, despite his limited public appearances and scattered reports of health issues. Ongoing regional hostilities, sanctions pressure, and internal elite dynamics remain key variables, while delayed funeral arrangements for the late leader (July 2026) and any renewed diplomatic contacts could test or reinforce the current arrangement through year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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