**Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalating regional conflict, triggering constitutional succession procedures under Article 111.** An interim three-member council assumed powers before the Assembly of Experts elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March via a vote that secured the required majority. This rapid transition consolidated hardline influence amid wartime conditions, domestic unrest, and economic strain, though Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile with limited appearances raising questions about health or security. Trader pricing on date-specific resolution markets reflects the completed 2026 shift while assigning moderate probabilities to further leadership turnover by mid-2027, driven by ongoing military pressures, internal factional dynamics within the IRGC and clerical bodies, and potential escalations or de-escalations in foreign policy. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could alter near-term odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$23,399,972 Vol.
15 août 2026
15 août
<1%
22 août
1%
31 août
3%
30 septembre
7%
31 octobre
11%
30 novembre
14%
31 décembre
19%
30 juin 2027
26%
$23,399,972 Vol.
15 août
$52,928 Vol.
<1%
22 août
$22,602 Vol.
1%
31 août
$1,130,196 Vol.
3%
30 septembre
$431,462 Vol.
7%
31 octobre
$7,555 Vol.
11%
30 novembre
$8,923 Vol.
14%
31 décembre
$3,967,645 Vol.
19%
30 juin 2027
$232,284 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalating regional conflict, triggering constitutional succession procedures under Article 111.** An interim three-member council assumed powers before the Assembly of Experts elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March via a vote that secured the required majority. This rapid transition consolidated hardline influence amid wartime conditions, domestic unrest, and economic strain, though Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile with limited appearances raising questions about health or security. Trader pricing on date-specific resolution markets reflects the completed 2026 shift while assigning moderate probabilities to further leadership turnover by mid-2027, driven by ongoing military pressures, internal factional dynamics within the IRGC and clerical bodies, and potential escalations or de-escalations in foreign policy. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could alter near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Volume
$23,399,972Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalating regional conflict, triggering constitutional succession procedures under Article 111.** An interim three-member council assumed powers before the Assembly of Experts elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March via a vote that secured the required majority. This rapid transition consolidated hardline influence amid wartime conditions, domestic unrest, and economic strain, though Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile with limited appearances raising questions about health or security. Trader pricing on date-specific resolution markets reflects the completed 2026 shift while assigning moderate probabilities to further leadership turnover by mid-2027, driven by ongoing military pressures, internal factional dynamics within the IRGC and clerical bodies, and potential escalations or de-escalations in foreign policy. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could alter near-term odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$23,399,972Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during escalating regional conflict, triggering constitutional succession procedures under Article 111.** An interim three-member council assumed powers before the Assembly of Experts elected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new supreme leader in early March via a vote that secured the required majority. This rapid transition consolidated hardline influence amid wartime conditions, domestic unrest, and economic strain, though Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile with limited appearances raising questions about health or security. Trader pricing on date-specific resolution markets reflects the completed 2026 shift while assigning moderate probabilities to further leadership turnover by mid-2027, driven by ongoing military pressures, internal factional dynamics within the IRGC and clerical bodies, and potential escalations or de-escalations in foreign policy. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through late 2026 could alter near-term odds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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