**Mojtaba Khamenei holds a commanding 93.6% consensus in the market because the Assembly of Experts appointed him Supreme Leader in March 2026 days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli strike.** This rapid transition, backed by decisive clerical and Revolutionary Guard support, established continuity during wartime conditions. Senior officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei have since confirmed his active direction of affairs through meetings and directives, despite limited public visibility tied to injuries sustained in the attack. Traders price in low near-term disruption risk given institutional consolidation and the absence of viable challengers. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome by year-end include severe health setbacks, major internal factional shifts, or intensified external military pressure that removes him from power.