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Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

icon for Leader iranien fin 2026 ?
Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.7%

Reza Pahlavi 7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.0%

Pas de chef d'État 2.9%

Polymarket

$8,458,685 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 64.7%

Reza Pahlavi 7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 5.0%

Pas de chef d'État 2.9%

Polymarket

$8,458,685 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,070,476 Vol.

65%

Reza Pahlavi

$206,309 Vol.

7%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$227,967 Vol.

5%

Pas de chef d'État

$473,838 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$199,559 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$338,967 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$285,180 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$846,916 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$799,228 Vol.

1%

Maryam Radjavi

$304,786 Vol.

1%

Massoud Rajavi

$61,558 Vol.

1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$77,005 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$312,358 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$124,964 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$75,515 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$434,259 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$87,111 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$290,404 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$179,708 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$52,010 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$100,091 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$83,015 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,445 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$52,716 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,414 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$87,072 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$74,398 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$39,291 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,666 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 by U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered an accelerated succession process through Iran's Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei received the required two-thirds majority in early March, backed by Revolutionary Guards influence seeking continuity amid wartime pressures and foreign threats. This rapid elevation, completed within days of the leadership vacuum, has anchored trader consensus around his continued tenure through the end of 2026, as no subsequent challenges or reversals have emerged. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi reflect the completed institutional transition and the limited scope for immediate shifts absent major escalations or internal upheaval.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,458,685
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 by U.S. and Israeli strikes triggered an accelerated succession process through Iran's Assembly of Experts. Mojtaba Khamenei received the required two-thirds majority in early March, backed by Revolutionary Guards influence seeking continuity amid wartime pressures and foreign threats. This rapid elevation, completed within days of the leadership vacuum, has anchored trader consensus around his continued tenure through the end of 2026, as no subsequent challenges or reversals have emerged. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi, Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, and Abbas Araghchi reflect the completed institutional transition and the limited scope for immediate shifts absent major escalations or internal upheaval.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,458,685
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Questions fréquentes

« Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 32 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 65%, suivi de « Reza Pahlavi » à 7%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 65¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 65% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » a généré $8.5 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 1, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? », parcourez les 32 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 65%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 65% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Reza Pahlavi » à 7%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.