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icon for Leader iranien fin 2026 ?
Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

icon for Leader iranien fin 2026 ?
Monde·Moyen-Orient

Leader iranien fin 2026 ?

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.5%

Pas de chef d'État 4.8%

Reza Pahlavi 3.1%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,565,655 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.5%

Pas de chef d'État 4.8%

Reza Pahlavi 3.1%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,565,655 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,001,080 Vol.

82%

Pas de chef d'État

$1,147,038 Vol.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$668,976 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,577 Vol.

2%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,272 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,724 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,019,700 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$917,261 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$936,317 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$830,953 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,404 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,112,752 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$534,784 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,745 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Radjavi

$804,583 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,001 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,285 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,171 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,055 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$198,979 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$835,627 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,021 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,736 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,062 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,526 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,618 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,611 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,276 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,560 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,100 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 81.5% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026, reflecting his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts following Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February during the Iran conflict. His elevation consolidated support from hardline factions and the IRGC due to his established security networks, despite the constitutional preference for non-hereditary succession and his father's prior opposition to such a path. Recent August reports of health-related speculation around the leadership, countered by official footage of Mojtaba, have reinforced trader assessments of regime continuity under him through year-end. Other listed contenders, including Alireza Arafi and reformist figures, remain marginal as the Assembly's decisive vote and institutional backing limit near-term disruption risks.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,565,655
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 81.5% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026, reflecting his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts following Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February during the Iran conflict. His elevation consolidated support from hardline factions and the IRGC due to his established security networks, despite the constitutional preference for non-hereditary succession and his father's prior opposition to such a path. Recent August reports of health-related speculation around the leadership, countered by official footage of Mojtaba, have reinforced trader assessments of regime continuity under him through year-end. Other listed contenders, including Alireza Arafi and reformist figures, remain marginal as the Assembly's decisive vote and institutional backing limit near-term disruption risks.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,565,655
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 32 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 82%, suivi de « Pas de chef d'État » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 82¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 82% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » a généré $38.6 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 28, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? », parcourez les 32 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » est « Mojtaba Khamenei » à 82%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 82% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Pas de chef d'État » à 5%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Leader iranien fin 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.