Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since late 2024 in response to sanctions snapback risks and U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026, with parliament reviewing a potential exit bill in March 2026. No such measure has advanced to passage or implementation. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum instead saw Tehran reaffirm it will not develop nuclear weapons, while post-strike assessments indicate damaged enrichment infrastructure and no resumed production of highly enriched uranium. Withdrawal under Article X would trigger immediate IAEA access loss, diplomatic isolation, and barriers to civilian nuclear cooperation, outcomes that align with the current trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability for remaining inside the treaty through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
Oui
10% chance
$334,386 Vol.
$334,386 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
10% chance
$334,386 Vol.
$334,386 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since late 2024 in response to sanctions snapback risks and U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026, with parliament reviewing a potential exit bill in March 2026. No such measure has advanced to passage or implementation. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum instead saw Tehran reaffirm it will not develop nuclear weapons, while post-strike assessments indicate damaged enrichment infrastructure and no resumed production of highly enriched uranium. Withdrawal under Article X would trigger immediate IAEA access loss, diplomatic isolation, and barriers to civilian nuclear cooperation, outcomes that align with the current trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability for remaining inside the treaty through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$334,386Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since late 2024 in response to sanctions snapback risks and U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026, with parliament reviewing a potential exit bill in March 2026. No such measure has advanced to passage or implementation. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum instead saw Tehran reaffirm it will not develop nuclear weapons, while post-strike assessments indicate damaged enrichment infrastructure and no resumed production of highly enriched uranium. Withdrawal under Article X would trigger immediate IAEA access loss, diplomatic isolation, and barriers to civilian nuclear cooperation, outcomes that align with the current trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability for remaining inside the treaty through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$334,386Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal since late 2024 in response to sanctions snapback risks and U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026, with parliament reviewing a potential exit bill in March 2026. No such measure has advanced to passage or implementation. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum instead saw Tehran reaffirm it will not develop nuclear weapons, while post-strike assessments indicate damaged enrichment infrastructure and no resumed production of highly enriched uranium. Withdrawal under Article X would trigger immediate IAEA access loss, diplomatic isolation, and barriers to civilian nuclear cooperation, outcomes that align with the current trader consensus reflected in the 90% implied probability for remaining inside the treaty through 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes