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icon for L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
Géopolitique·Nucléaire

L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?

icon for L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?
Géopolitique·Nucléaire

L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ?

déc. 31

déc. 31

Oui

10% chance
Polymarket

$331,310 Vol.

Oui

10% chance
Polymarket

$331,310 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal in response to sanctions snapback risks, U.S. and Israeli military strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025–2026, and IAEA disputes, yet no formal exit has occurred.** Legislative proposals advanced in Iran’s parliament (Majlis) as recently as mid-2025 and early 2026, including bills tying withdrawal to ending JCPOA-related restrictions and pursuing alternative nuclear cooperation via groups like BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. A July 2026 lawmaker statement again urged immediate exit, but these remain rhetorical or preparatory steps amid an ongoing regional conflict and paused ceasefire. Traders price “No” at 89.5% before 2027 because actual withdrawal would trigger automatic IAEA safeguards termination, loss of access to peaceful nuclear technology transfers, deeper international isolation, and likely escalation of sanctions or further strikes—outcomes Tehran has historically avoided despite leverage-seeking rhetoric. Diplomatic channels, including 2026 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, and Iran’s continued (if strained) safeguards engagement reinforce the view that exit serves more as a bargaining signal than an imminent policy. Resolution would require verifiable official Iranian action notifying the UN and IAEA, a threshold unmet to date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$331,310
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Iranian officials have repeatedly threatened NPT withdrawal in response to sanctions snapback risks, U.S. and Israeli military strikes on nuclear facilities in 2025–2026, and IAEA disputes, yet no formal exit has occurred.** Legislative proposals advanced in Iran’s parliament (Majlis) as recently as mid-2025 and early 2026, including bills tying withdrawal to ending JCPOA-related restrictions and pursuing alternative nuclear cooperation via groups like BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. A July 2026 lawmaker statement again urged immediate exit, but these remain rhetorical or preparatory steps amid an ongoing regional conflict and paused ceasefire. Traders price “No” at 89.5% before 2027 because actual withdrawal would trigger automatic IAEA safeguards termination, loss of access to peaceful nuclear technology transfers, deeper international isolation, and likely escalation of sanctions or further strikes—outcomes Tehran has historically avoided despite leverage-seeking rhetoric. Diplomatic channels, including 2026 U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, and Iran’s continued (if strained) safeguards engagement reinforce the view that exit serves more as a bargaining signal than an imminent policy. Resolution would require verifiable official Iranian action notifying the UN and IAEA, a threshold unmet to date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$331,310
Date de fin
31 déc. 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Questions fréquentes

« L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ? » à 10%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 10¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 10% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ? » a généré $331.3K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ? » est « L'Iran se retirera-t-il du TNP avant 2027 ? » à 10%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 10% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

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