Trader consensus that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the breakdown of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, whose 60-day negotiating window expired without a final deal on nuclear limits or stockpile disposition. Iran has maintained the status quo on its program amid disputes over IAEA access to damaged sites, while insisting enrichment discussions occur only within a broader framework recognizing its nuclear needs. With roughly one week remaining, no verifiable diplomatic progress or announcements have emerged to suggest a sudden reversal. Late developments such as renewed bilateral talks, a surprise concession on down-blending under IAEA supervision, or external mediation could still shift the timeline, though structural disagreements on enrichment rights and verification continue to constrain rapid agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ?
L'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ?
Oui
<1% chance
$73,907 Vol.
$73,907 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
<1% chance
$73,907 Vol.
$73,907 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the breakdown of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, whose 60-day negotiating window expired without a final deal on nuclear limits or stockpile disposition. Iran has maintained the status quo on its program amid disputes over IAEA access to damaged sites, while insisting enrichment discussions occur only within a broader framework recognizing its nuclear needs. With roughly one week remaining, no verifiable diplomatic progress or announcements have emerged to suggest a sudden reversal. Late developments such as renewed bilateral talks, a surprise concession on down-blending under IAEA supervision, or external mediation could still shift the timeline, though structural disagreements on enrichment rights and verification continue to constrain rapid agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$73,907Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the breakdown of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, whose 60-day negotiating window expired without a final deal on nuclear limits or stockpile disposition. Iran has maintained the status quo on its program amid disputes over IAEA access to damaged sites, while insisting enrichment discussions occur only within a broader framework recognizing its nuclear needs. With roughly one week remaining, no verifiable diplomatic progress or announcements have emerged to suggest a sudden reversal. Late developments such as renewed bilateral talks, a surprise concession on down-blending under IAEA supervision, or external mediation could still shift the timeline, though structural disagreements on enrichment rights and verification continue to constrain rapid agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,907Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by September 30 reflects the breakdown of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, whose 60-day negotiating window expired without a final deal on nuclear limits or stockpile disposition. Iran has maintained the status quo on its program amid disputes over IAEA access to damaged sites, while insisting enrichment discussions occur only within a broader framework recognizing its nuclear needs. With roughly one week remaining, no verifiable diplomatic progress or announcements have emerged to suggest a sudden reversal. Late developments such as renewed bilateral talks, a surprise concession on down-blending under IAEA supervision, or external mediation could still shift the timeline, though structural disagreements on enrichment rights and verification continue to constrain rapid agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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