Recent Houthi advances, including seizures of Perim Island, Mokha, and coastal positions in early September 2026, have tightened control over approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting a sharp drop in daily transits to as low as 15 vessels on September 12 from prior levels near 30. Commercial operators continue selective sailings, with Houthis asserting near-normal volumes excluding Saudi-linked tonnage, while traffic data from Kpler and Windward show persistent crude, container, and tanker movements. This has elevated war-risk premiums above 0.5% of hull value, driven freight rates higher on Asia-Middle East routes, and contributed to Brent crude near $105 per barrel amid rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Oil export flows from Saudi Red Sea ports face added costs via SUMED pipeline and Suez alternatives. Upcoming catalysts include further territorial developments or insurance market responses that could accelerate voluntary reductions in transits.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0 navires transitent par Bab el-Mandeb à n'importe quelle date avant le.. ?
0 navires transitent par Bab el-Mandeb à n'importe quelle date avant le.. ?
NOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre
5%
31 décembre
24%
$169 Vol.
30 septembre
$167 Vol.
5%
31 décembre
$2 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi advances, including seizures of Perim Island, Mokha, and coastal positions in early September 2026, have tightened control over approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting a sharp drop in daily transits to as low as 15 vessels on September 12 from prior levels near 30. Commercial operators continue selective sailings, with Houthis asserting near-normal volumes excluding Saudi-linked tonnage, while traffic data from Kpler and Windward show persistent crude, container, and tanker movements. This has elevated war-risk premiums above 0.5% of hull value, driven freight rates higher on Asia-Middle East routes, and contributed to Brent crude near $105 per barrel amid rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Oil export flows from Saudi Red Sea ports face added costs via SUMED pipeline and Suez alternatives. Upcoming catalysts include further territorial developments or insurance market responses that could accelerate voluntary reductions in transits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Marché ouvert : Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$169Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi advances, including seizures of Perim Island, Mokha, and coastal positions in early September 2026, have tightened control over approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting a sharp drop in daily transits to as low as 15 vessels on September 12 from prior levels near 30. Commercial operators continue selective sailings, with Houthis asserting near-normal volumes excluding Saudi-linked tonnage, while traffic data from Kpler and Windward show persistent crude, container, and tanker movements. This has elevated war-risk premiums above 0.5% of hull value, driven freight rates higher on Asia-Middle East routes, and contributed to Brent crude near $105 per barrel amid rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Oil export flows from Saudi Red Sea ports face added costs via SUMED pipeline and Suez alternatives. Upcoming catalysts include further territorial developments or insurance market responses that could accelerate voluntary reductions in transits.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$169Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETSource de résolution
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi advances, including seizures of Perim Island, Mokha, and coastal positions in early September 2026, have tightened control over approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting a sharp drop in daily transits to as low as 15 vessels on September 12 from prior levels near 30. Commercial operators continue selective sailings, with Houthis asserting near-normal volumes excluding Saudi-linked tonnage, while traffic data from Kpler and Windward show persistent crude, container, and tanker movements. This has elevated war-risk premiums above 0.5% of hull value, driven freight rates higher on Asia-Middle East routes, and contributed to Brent crude near $105 per barrel amid rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Oil export flows from Saudi Red Sea ports face added costs via SUMED pipeline and Suez alternatives. Upcoming catalysts include further territorial developments or insurance market responses that could accelerate voluntary reductions in transits.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes