Ongoing Iranian drone and missile strikes on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Kuwaiti VLCC fire on October 1 and at least four hits in the prior 10 days, represent the dominant driver elevating shipping risk. This activity, amid a broader U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, has pushed Middle East Gulf–China VLCC freight rates to $24 per barrel—now 25% of FOB crude value—while AIS-visible traffic has fallen to roughly 6% of pre-crisis norms. Oil flows through the chokepoint remain near 13 million barrels per day, supported by U.S. naval escorts and some covert movements, yet war-risk premiums and insurance costs continue to climb. Traders price in sustained targeting probability given Iran’s daily launch cadence and enforcement of approved routes, though full escalation appears contained. Key near-term catalysts include any shifts in naval coordination or diplomatic signals on transit protocols.