Persistent geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict that began in late February 2026 continue to anchor trader consensus around an 81.5% implied probability of no return to normal Strait of Hormuz traffic this year. AIS and satellite data show commercial transits stuck at roughly 3-8% of pre-crisis norms near 75-85 vessels daily, with war-risk premiums elevated fifteenfold and fresh attacks reported since late September eroding limited recovery momentum. Adaptations such as ship-to-ship transfers and bypass pipelines have sustained partial oil flows near 13 million barrels per day, yet unresolved factors including mines, competing transit regimes, sanctions exposure, and IRGC permitting requirements sustain elevated uncertainty. Market-implied odds reflect skin-in-the-game assessment of these structural barriers outweighing near-term diplomatic signals.