**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has introduced measured optimism into shipping sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz, yet persistent security and insurance frictions keep near-term traffic expectations tightly contested.** Following the February 2026 closure amid conflict, daily commercial transits fell to single digits or low teens—roughly 5-10% of the pre-crisis ~60-vessel average—as operators rerouted around Africa and war-risk premiums surged. A mid-June interim framework has prompted a modest rebound, with select days recording 25-62 crossings and weekly totals reaching the highest levels since the shutdown, driven by pent-up crude and LNG movements. However, as of late June, live trackers show traffic still hovering around 12 vessels per day amid ongoing mine-clearance needs, IRGC coordination requirements, and isolated warnings that have reversed some sailings. For the end-of-July average, markets price roughly equal probability between very low (0-20) and moderate (40-60) daily volumes because shipowners remain cautious: elevated hull premiums, sanctions exposure, and the risk of renewed escalation could cap recovery well below historical norms even if the truce holds. Key swing factors include the pace of verified safe passage, any further diplomatic milestones before the 60-day window, and real-time AIS trends that would either reinforce or undermine the current fragile uptick in throughput.