Recent Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon over the past week, amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire extended into late May, underscore persistent violations driving trader skepticism on withdrawal timelines. Direct talks in Washington, showing cautious progress as the truce nears expiration, focus on UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation, with Lebanon demanding full Israeli troop pullout south of the Litani River and Israel seeking Hezbollah disarmament and security buffers. Escalations since the March 2026 war resumption, including expanded ground operations, have entrenched Israel's presence a year past initial deadlines, while Hezbollah defiance complicates de-escalation. Key upcoming events include potential ceasefire extensions and bilateral summits that could signal shifts in military postures or negotiations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIsraël se retire du Liban d'ici... ?
Israël se retire du Liban d'ici... ?
$1,474,462 Vol.
30 juin 2026
31 mai
1%
30 juin
10%
$1,474,462 Vol.
31 mai
$1,207,435 Vol.
1%
30 juin
$192,020 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon over the past week, amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire extended into late May, underscore persistent violations driving trader skepticism on withdrawal timelines. Direct talks in Washington, showing cautious progress as the truce nears expiration, focus on UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation, with Lebanon demanding full Israeli troop pullout south of the Litani River and Israel seeking Hezbollah disarmament and security buffers. Escalations since the March 2026 war resumption, including expanded ground operations, have entrenched Israel's presence a year past initial deadlines, while Hezbollah defiance complicates de-escalation. Key upcoming events include potential ceasefire extensions and bilateral summits that could signal shifts in military postures or negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,474,462Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Recent Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon over the past week, amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire extended into late May, underscore persistent violations driving trader skepticism on withdrawal timelines. Direct talks in Washington, showing cautious progress as the truce nears expiration, focus on UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation, with Lebanon demanding full Israeli troop pullout south of the Litani River and Israel seeking Hezbollah disarmament and security buffers. Escalations since the March 2026 war resumption, including expanded ground operations, have entrenched Israel's presence a year past initial deadlines, while Hezbollah defiance complicates de-escalation. Key upcoming events include potential ceasefire extensions and bilateral summits that could signal shifts in military postures or negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Volume
$1,474,462Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon over the past week, amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire extended into late May, underscore persistent violations driving trader skepticism on withdrawal timelines. Direct talks in Washington, showing cautious progress as the truce nears expiration, focus on UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implementation, with Lebanon demanding full Israeli troop pullout south of the Litani River and Israel seeking Hezbollah disarmament and security buffers. Escalations since the March 2026 war resumption, including expanded ground operations, have entrenched Israel's presence a year past initial deadlines, while Hezbollah defiance complicates de-escalation. Key upcoming events include potential ceasefire extensions and bilateral summits that could signal shifts in military postures or negotiations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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